Looking more like New Orleans will be in the BULLEYES

[andrew_the_beast]

and landfall as a CAT 5. Doesnt look good. Latest images show strengthing and outflow looking better due to GOM temps. 11 pm advisory should be very interesting.

[Ixolib]

and landfall as a CAT 5. Doesnt look good. Latest images show strengthing and outflow looking better due to GOM temps. 11 pm advisory should be very interesting.

LINK or SUPPORT for this observation???

[dennis1x1]

why do you say it looks like new orleans is in the bullseye?


ill give you the gfdl, ukmet, fsu and nhc track......can you link your info?

as for intensity......cloudtops are warmer than in days with this storm...eye is ragged....it looks like its maintaining to me.

[Scorpion]

I think it very well may be a high Cat 4 maybe Cat 5. But I dont think NOLA is the bullseye. Looks like Mobile to me.

[Mattie]

The latest report is 18 feet of water in New Orleans. . . the vortex showed strenthening . . . the turn to the north has not continued.

[dennis1x1]

theres a report of 18 feet of water in new orleans? right now? please elaborate.

[Stormcenter]

and landfall as a CAT 5. Doesnt look good. Latest images show strengthing and outflow looking better due to GOM temps. 11 pm advisory should be very interesting.

MS/AL coastline maybe extreme W.Fl. Panhandle

[Mattie]

no - they are expecting at least 18 feet of water - go to http://www.wtix690am.com/live.html for more information - mayor of new orleans to speak @ 6

The situation will be serious in New Orleans direct hit or indirect hit.

[dennis1x1]

IF a direct hit of a cat 4....i believe is the 18ft scenario......i dont believe that would be the forecast based on the track of Ivan......but please confirm.

[Cape Verde]

So far this thread is mostly hysteria and short on facts.

[WeatherNLU]

IF a direct hit of a cat 4....i believe is the 18ft scenario......i dont believe that would be the forecast based on the track of Ivan......but please confirm.

Uh, negative.

If Ivan makes landfall on the MS/AL coast, there should be little to no flooding at all in New Orleans. Now the outer parishes (Plaquemines, St. Bernard) with municipalities outside of the levee protection system is another story.

Now if a band trains over the same area, we could have a problem. What I mean is no storm surge flooding.

[dennis1x1]

ive got family in metairie and am advising them and just want to make sure that the 18ft thing is bunk......asssuming a landfall +/- 30 miles from current forecast.....


thanks nlu......

as for now im holding them.....go time is noon tomorrow if track shifts....

[Mello1]

Hurricane warning issued for NO....

http://www.wwltv.com/index.html?fw=http ... index.html

[Mattie]

Yes, Weather NLU - Plaquemines Parish, etc. (although all of that is considered "new Orleans" - you know that - like I said - go to http://www.wtix690am.com/live.html and listen to what they say. It is based on where the projected landfall is right now - not a direct hit. If it were a direct hit the water would be much higher.

As far as Cape's comment - perhaps before you make those accusations you follow the information that is provided.

[LSU2001]

just read reports from wwl. All over news about DIRECT impact of cat4 cat5. Mayor forcasting close call or hit. Stories about toxic waste stew, rescue efforts all the regular doomsday stuff. however it says if storm stays on forcasted track this should not happen but it says it at the bottom of the article.

ABSOLUTE HYSTERIA but also quite possible not probable (sorry about spelling)

[AL Chili Pepper]

I put my ruler on the screen (lol) and checked. Looks like if it doesn't change, MS gets the bullseye.

[ilmc172pilot]

prayers for the folks in nawlins......

[duris]

ive got family in metairie and am advising them and just want to make sure that the 18ft thing is bunk......asssuming a landfall +/- 30 miles from current forecast.....


thanks nlu......

as for now im holding them.....go time is noon tomorrow if track shifts....

it is bunk based on the stories of worst case scenarios, which this isn't (as of now). the mayor did make that comment but that was based on if we took the worst case scenario hit. i'm watching for the 10:00 advisory at least, then leaving.

[Mattie]

Well guys - all I can say is that I've weathered tons of hurricanes and Betsy and Camille among them. I'm not an alarmist - and much less a w*caster. But again - if the possibilities are there - then haul it out of there.

[AggieSpirit]

I am certainly no meteorologist, but am working on that major . Right now, im worried about Physics and Differential equations. Anyways......

My untrained eye, the various computer models, and gut feeling makes me think thiswill not make a bullseye hit on New Orleans itself. Although, I can see where the mouth of the river, like Plaquemines parish, could get some of the worst of Ivan.

I think this thing is going in somewhere between Biloxi and Mobile. That would still mean some damage for the greater New Orleans metro area, but not the doomsday scenario. But for Mobile, in particular, I am very worried. This thing is going to rival Camille for damage I bet.

Still, these storms sometimes have a mind of their own, and it is better to leave town than roll the dice with your life on the line.

Of course, I would be one of the stupid ones to stay and do a 'vertical evacuation' so I could film the storm and see it. I have a deep fascination with tropical cyclones, tornados, and dust storms. Go ahead -- call me stupid. But then again, so are all those reporters who stand in the middle of it .