Hurricane Warning for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands!

[Thunder44]

For Jeanne as of the 5pm Advisory. She's up to 60mph!

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Jeanne Forecast/Advisory Number 5


Statement as of 21:00Z on September 14, 2004



at 5 PM AST...2100z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued for Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

At 5 PM AST...the government of the Dominican Republic has issued a
Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the
northern and southern coasts of the Dominican Republic from Cabrera
southward to Santo Domingo.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the British Virgin
Islands...St. Kitts...and Nevis.

At 5 PM AST...the government of the Netherlands Antilles has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Saba...St. Eustatius...
and St. Marteen.

Tropical storm conditions could also affect the remainder of the
northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical storm center located near 16.8n 63.9w at 14/2100z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 9 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 998 mb
Max sustained winds 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
50 kt....... 15ne 15se 15sw 15nw.
34 kt....... 35ne 35se 35sw 35nw.
12 ft seas.. 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 16.8n 63.9w at 14/2100z
at 14/1800z center was located near 16.7n 63.5w

forecast valid 15/0600z 17.4n 65.3w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 15/1800z 18.1n 67.0w...inland over Puerto Rico
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 10ne 10se 10sw 10nw.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 16/0600z 18.9n 68.6w...near Dominican Republic
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 10ne 10se 10sw 10nw.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 16/1800z 19.7n 70.0w...near Dominican Republic
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 15sw 30nw.
34 kt... 70ne 70se 30sw 70nw.

Forecast valid 17/1800z 20.9n 72.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
50 kt... 35ne 35se 25sw 35nw.
34 kt... 80ne 80se 50sw 80nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 18/1800z 22.5n 74.5w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.

Outlook valid 19/1800z 24.5n 75.5w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 16.8n 63.9w

next advisory at 15/0300z

forecaster Stewart

[Josephine96]

My guess is this thing is only going to continue to intensify if they have issued hurricane warnings

[gkrangers]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

Very tight core of winds.