Floydbuster's 14th Ivan Forecast...

[Anonymous]

Hurricane Ivan Forecast # 14
Tuesday September 14, 2004
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO

Hurricane Ivan is still 160 mph and 925 mb. It is a very powerful category 5 hurricane moving towards the US Gulf Coast.

Ivan continues to move northwest at 8 kt. I expect a due north track in 24 hours leading up to landfall in about 48 hours, give or take a few hours.

Hurricane Ivan appears to be fluctuating in intensity. This can be expected, so I expect fluctuations until landfall. However, although SOME SHEAR may come into play, but I do not think it will be ANY WEAKER than 125 mph. And that in my opinion would be due to a massive weakening. I expect Ivan to be a category 4 hurricane at landfall near in Alabama or Mississippi. Right now, I forecast near the border or Alabama and Mississippi... as a category 4.

12 HRS-- 23.9N-- 88.0 W-- 140 kt
24 HRS-- 25.2 N-- 88.3 W-- 135 kt
36 HRS-- 27.3 N-- 88.4 W-- 130 kt
48 HRS-- 30.2 N-- 88.4 W-- 125 kt (ON COAST)
72 HRS-- 33.0 N-- 88.2 W-- 80 kt (INLAND)
96 HRS-- 35.1 N-- 86.2 W-- 45 kt (INLAND)
120 HRS- 38.0 N-- 84.0 W-- 35 kt (INLAND)

http://www.freewebs.com/caneguy/ivan.JPG

[QueenBee]

Flyod I have a question? Why do you think this storm will hit Mississippi and Alabama?I mean this storm has not exactly followed the NHc's forcast track. I think it will follow the western side of the cone. I feel this is a SE Louisiana storm.