Accuweather 6 AM Discussion

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 14, 2004 5:45 a.m.


Dangerous Ivan in the Southeast Gulf - Aiming Toward the North Gulf Coast

At 5:00 AM EDT Tuesday morning, Ivan was maintaining category-five strength, with top sustained winds of 160 mph. The center of Ivan's large eye was at 22.6 degrees north and 86.0 degrees west, or 85 miles west northwest of the western tip of Cuba. Movement was toward the northwest at 9 mph. The central pressure of Ivan was 27.29 inches. A hurricane warning remains in effect for western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth; a hurricane watch remains in effect for the rest of Cuba. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the northeastern Yucatan peninsula. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas. A hurricane watch remains in effect for the northern Gulf of Mexico from Morgan City Louisiana eastward to St. Marks, Florida.

Currently, Accuweather.com meteorologists still believe Ivan will make landfall between New Orleans and Panama City within a few hours of daybreak on Thursday morning. The intensity forecast is a real challenge with Ivan. The most recent maps showing water temperatures and the depth of the warmer water shows that Ivan will be tracking into warm waters over the southern Gulf of Mexico. However, the depth of the warm water is less than compared to where it has been tracking between western Cuba and Jamaica. This could cause the hurricane to weaken somewhat, especially since it is tracking rather slow. This same data shows a pool of very warm water with good depth between 85 west and 90 west along 27 north. If our track is correct Ivan will track over this very warm water area during Wednesday afternoon and evening. That could allow Ivan to remain very strong just before landfall.

Tropical Depression 11 gained 5 mph in wind strength during the last 3 hours and now has sustained winds of 35 mph at 5:00 am Tuesday. The depression was centered near 16.6 degrees north and 62.2 degrees west. TD 11 is moving toward the northwest at 12 mph. This depression could become the next tropical storm, Jeanne, within the next day or two. This system is expected to move northwest during the next few days. That track will take it very close to the U.S. Virgin Islands and northeast Puerto Rico. Already, there are tropical storm warnings in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the British Virgin Islands. A weak upper level system is preventing this system from intensifying quickly. But if this upper level system weakens and backs off to the southwest as planned then TD #11 will become a storm. This could take place late Tuesday or during Wednesday. Beyond that this system should move into or just east of the Bahamas late in the week.