What would be the effects in NOLA if Ivan took a track to the mouth of the Mississippi and then to Pass Christian for landfall as did Camille? Ivan is now Cat 5. Camille was a 5. Are they comparable in size with hurricane and tropical storm winds? I know a hurricane passing just east of NOLA is part of the doomsday scenario to spill Lake Pontchartrain waters into the city, but what happened in New Orleans when Camille hit Pass Christian?
Can we use that as a guide?
camille and ivan
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camille and ivan
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Re: camille and ivan
Indystorm wrote:What would be the effects in NOLA if Ivan took a track to the mouth of the Mississippi and then to Pass Christian for landfall as did Camille? Ivan is now Cat 5. Camille was a 5. Are they comparable in size with hurricane and tropical storm winds? I know a hurricane passing just east of NOLA is part of the doomsday scenario to spill Lake Pontchartrain waters into the city, but what happened in New Orleans when Camille hit Pass Christian?
Can we use that as a guide?
I believe it has to do with the approach. From the SE is what I hear is the worst case. If from the SW, although it will be significant, the impact would not be as severe - even if it crossed the "X" at the same spot.
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Re: camille and ivan
Indystorm wrote:What would be the effects in NOLA if Ivan took a track to the mouth of the Mississippi and then to Pass Christian for landfall as did Camille? Ivan is now Cat 5. Camille was a 5. Are they comparable in size with hurricane and tropical storm winds? I know a hurricane passing just east of NOLA is part of the doomsday scenario to spill Lake Pontchartrain waters into the city, but what happened in New Orleans when Camille hit Pass Christian?
Can we use that as a guide?
I believe it has to do with the approach. From the SE is what I hear is the worst case. If from the SW, although it will be significant, the impact would not be as severe - even if it crossed the "X" at the same spot.
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wabbitoid
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Fritz, you are correct. A strike around Biloxi would push the tidal surge into Ponchatrain, and the winds from the north would push all of that over the levee. A direct hit has only about 40 miles of land to wash over before it is filling "the bowl".
They re-evaluated this a few years ago, and decided that there are a lot of situations for NO to be in serious trouble than just a big 'cane up the Mississippi.
It's not good to be ten feet below sea level, basically.
They re-evaluated this a few years ago, and decided that there are a lot of situations for NO to be in serious trouble than just a big 'cane up the Mississippi.
It's not good to be ten feet below sea level, basically.
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wabbitoid
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Should we start a new thread about the nightmare possibility in New Orleans, just so people know why some of us are so panicky?
Basically, it comes down to this:
New Orleans is a marsh. The land was built up by sediment from the Mississippi. This land compacts each year, and then is flooded by more sediment -- or, rather, it was until about 150 years ago.
Since then, the area has been ringed with a jury-rigged series of levees that channel the Mississippi into a narrow canal. That has pushed all the sediment way into the gulf, and all of the bayous south of New Orleans have been starved for new fill. An area the size of Manhatten is lost to the Gulf each year.
In addition, New Orleans has continued to sink, with no new fill on top, and is now 10 feet below sea level (more in places). And all this time the loss of bayou to the south moves it closer to the Gulf -- the bowl that is below sea level is 40 miles or less from the Gulf.
All of this is protected by old, 8 foot levees that can easily be breached by a major hurricane.
The net result could well be the permanant loss of New Orleans (it would be underwater), and loss of life between 40k and 100k people.
In addition, 20% of our nation's refining capability is in Lake Charles, Shreveport, or Baton Rouge. The largest importation of oil is at Grand Isle. The Mississippi would likely be rendered impassable for a while, meaning all or part of this would be messed up, as would 80% of our nations grain shipments.
In short, a direct strike on New Orleans or Biloxi would be your very worst possible nightmare come true.
Basically, it comes down to this:
New Orleans is a marsh. The land was built up by sediment from the Mississippi. This land compacts each year, and then is flooded by more sediment -- or, rather, it was until about 150 years ago.
Since then, the area has been ringed with a jury-rigged series of levees that channel the Mississippi into a narrow canal. That has pushed all the sediment way into the gulf, and all of the bayous south of New Orleans have been starved for new fill. An area the size of Manhatten is lost to the Gulf each year.
In addition, New Orleans has continued to sink, with no new fill on top, and is now 10 feet below sea level (more in places). And all this time the loss of bayou to the south moves it closer to the Gulf -- the bowl that is below sea level is 40 miles or less from the Gulf.
All of this is protected by old, 8 foot levees that can easily be breached by a major hurricane.
The net result could well be the permanant loss of New Orleans (it would be underwater), and loss of life between 40k and 100k people.
In addition, 20% of our nation's refining capability is in Lake Charles, Shreveport, or Baton Rouge. The largest importation of oil is at Grand Isle. The Mississippi would likely be rendered impassable for a while, meaning all or part of this would be messed up, as would 80% of our nations grain shipments.
In short, a direct strike on New Orleans or Biloxi would be your very worst possible nightmare come true.
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