Looks Like Shear Is DECREASING In The GOM...? A Model Link..

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Hurricane Cheese
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Looks Like Shear Is DECREASING In The GOM...? A Model Link..

#1 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:12 am

Looking at this shear graphic from my fellow Wisconsinites down at UW-Madison, it appears that shear is DECREASING over the GOM...

Here's the link...


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html


Now I don't know if I'm seeing things or interpreting things wrong on this map, but it appears shear is decreasing ahead of the storm.

I'm hoping a more experienced Met, or S2K Forecaster could comment on this...!
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#2 Postby Guest » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:17 am

I think Ivan is creating its own favorable environment. I dont like the look of these clouds over Fl. I agree with Dixie.
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iluvseashore
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#3 Postby iluvseashore » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:46 pm

So, what exactly do the clouds and rainbands over Florida tell us?I think I know just want some details. I have read that clouds ahead of storm do not have anything to do with the center's movements. What are you thoughts smokin?
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#4 Postby ericinmia » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:30 pm

The shear to the nw to wnw is decreasing some, but look at the current upper level shear....
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

It shows high levels of 30-50 kt shear across the north western GOM. If Ivan moves that direction, he will have some problems.
-Eric
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