Ivan makes the turn; Eye structure still improving

meteorjosh · #1 Postby **meteorjosh** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:56 am

looks like eye will pass just over tip of Pinar del Rio province in western Cuba...all eyes now wait to see whether the weaker than forecast ridge to Ivan's NE results in the beginning of true recurvature and whether his inner core can hold its own with increasing shear over he next 24 hours
but what an impressive storm
check out DVORAK loop

Josephine96 · #2 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:58 am

Which way will he recurve? Due north? or NE?

kevin · #3 Postby **kevin** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:59 am

He can't recurve to the east or to the west, can he? lol

Recurvature in the northern hemisphere is N, NNE, NE process. Will he recurve over georgia or the gulf, that's the question. I say Georgia because its the sensible answer.

Josephine96 · #4 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:03 am

Probably.. Still going to be an interesting next couple days here

meteorjosh · #5 Postby **meteorjosh** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:06 am

with this much of a northward jog this early, I'd be concerned about a landfall on the panhandle and be breathing slightly easier in the Big easy

#6 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:07 am

It's not a true north turn and it still looks to miss a direct hit over the western tip of Cuba. The wobbles are all too important right now though. Also, 12Z guidance (see model sticky) is continuing further west. 12Z GFS says Mobile bay now, 12Z GEM moved slightly east from last night and has a New Orleans hit.

Josephine96 · #7 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:08 am

I don't think he'll go to New Orleans.. I heard he doesn't like cajun food lol :lol:

Sanibel · #8 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:20 am

He looks to be just underneath blowing that eye clear into that nice big sharp eye he's showing.

This storm is the only west Atlantic cyclone I've ever seen maintain 160mph while showing signs of not quite reaching its highest potential. Needless to say it is unnerving.

From the look of his eye it looks like he wants to blow that new big eye clear and boost up to even higher intensity!

wabbitoid · #9 Postby **wabbitoid** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:32 am

There are signs that he is still convecting to -80C, which is to say almost the stratosphere. Between 30C water, he has 100C or 230F of temperature difference fueling him.

Nothing will slow this beast down. He's a big hole in the atmosphere that isn't going to be affected by much else around him.

kevin · #10 Postby **kevin** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:36 am

Sanibel, its really unnerving watching Ivan. I'm a bit nervous about the next recon, I think it'll go below 910 before all is said and done. Days ago I posted that Ivan would probably not drop lower than 920mb.

This is one storm I actually don't want to come my way..

Ivan makes the turn; Eye structure still improving

Ivan makes the turn; Eye structure still improving

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