Questions for mets "creating its own environment"

southerngale · #1 Postby **southerngale** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 4:47 pm

I've heard it mentioned on here several times that Ivan may create its own environment or it is creating its own environment. I've also heard it mentioned that this term is way over-used. My questions for the mets and/or amateurs are what makes this happen? Size, strength, both, or more variables? When is it likely to occur and how do you know when that may be starting to happen, etc.? Is it as rare as I think?
Please elaborate as much as you want because I think it's something we'd all like to understand better.

wabbitoid · #2 Postby **wabbitoid** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 4:50 pm

A good topic, because I always say that, too. I had heard it's a matter of momentum at some point, so any of the pros out there can tell me if I'm just full of it (I swear I heard it from someone else!)

#3 Postby **tronbunny** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:17 pm

I'm seeing the weakening..

From 12Z UKMET Model data:

HURRICANE IVAN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 81.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092004
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.09.2004 18.7N 81.1W INTENSE
00UTC 13.09.2004 19.5N 82.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2004 20.4N 83.5W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 14.09.2004 22.2N 84.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2004 23.8N 85.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2004 25.6N 86.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2004 27.8N 87.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2004 29.8N 88.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2004 32.2N 87.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2004 33.8N 85.9W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2004 32.7N 84.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 18.09.2004 33.0N 81.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2004 35.5N 81.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
I have 2 questions...
1> weakening due to initial ridge interference?
2> Strengthening because it's now beyond the ridge and again, it's own weather system, that could defy prediction?

Galvestongirl · #4 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:26 pm

yea, I have wondered this myself,..I was always under the impression that when a hurricane got the size of Ivan, it went where it wanted too... regardless of the steering currents....I have no Idea if this is correct though. :oops:

AL Chili Pepper · #5 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:41 pm

tronbunny wrote:I'm seeing the weakening..

From 12Z UKMET Model data:

HURRICANE IVAN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 81.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092004
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.09.2004 18.7N 81.1W INTENSE
00UTC 13.09.2004 19.5N 82.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2004 20.4N 83.5W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 14.09.2004 22.2N 84.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2004 23.8N 85.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2004 25.6N 86.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2004 27.8N 87.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2004 29.8N 88.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2004 32.2N 87.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2004 33.8N 85.9W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2004 32.7N 84.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 18.09.2004 33.0N 81.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2004 35.5N 81.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
I have 2 questions...
1> weakening due to initial ridge interference?
2> Strengthening because it's now beyond the ridge and again, it's own weather system, that could defy prediction?

Unfortunately, weakening due to the interaction with land.

#6 Postby **tronbunny** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 6:19 pm

Mostly talking about the weakening in the next 24hrs..
will it?

Galvestongirl · #7 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:10 pm

bump.....if there is anyone with any knowledge about the hurricane doing this ....would you help me to understand??

#8 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:45 pm

is really a big air recycling machine and that outflow from the top can either create an envelope for the storm or affect the features that are trying to steer it. The strong warm air advection aloft out of the storm can intensify and amplify the ridge to the east or it can actually build a ridge out ahead of the storm thus resulting in the storm supplying its own steering. Eventually, however, the outside world will intrude upon this happy little envelope as the storm gains latitude.

Steve

#9 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:56 pm

Thanks Steve for the excellent easily understandable explanation.

Giving credit where credit is due. BarometerBob and I were discussing Ivan this evening. One thing we talked about was the supposed turn northwest some saw happening last night which eventually went back to WNW. Some were asking about what they saw North of Ivan as a weakness in the ridge, which it was. What happened is that the strong outflow from Ivan created its' own environment and actually helped close off this weakness which Ivan was trying to head towards and thus the turn back to his WNW track.

southerngale · #10 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:26 am

Thanks guys. I wonder if the recent NW wobble is just a wobble or the long-awaited NW turn.

Questions for mets "creating its own environment"

Questions for mets "creating its own environment"

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