remember this...

[Guest]

i dont know how to post images, but remember the track of charley? he has done the exact same thing as him. Charley was also moving wnw then took a jog w/wsw and then continued on his path which we know. Ivan has done the same thing. it could be a prelude...

[Huckster]

Could be, but things are a lot different than they were with Charley. With Charley, there was a record trough coming in. This time, I think they're counting on weakening ridge to turn it north. No massive trough, no record cold outbreak. I think it will end up farther west than Charley, Panhandle being the current consensus. Whenever a storm comes around, I always start thinking of the storms that were in that area or had followed similar paths and wonder about whether this storm could is going to do what they did, but it never seems to happen. Always seems like just enough a difference in the beginning to really alter the endgame.

[KYAGoodbye]

In New Oleans during Charley we had absolutely bizarre fall weather at a time when it would usually be 96 with 100% humidity.

[Huckster]

It's pretty hot here right now with that ridge off to the west. I figured we would have gotten a cold front through here by now, a September front that is, not an early August front.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

keep in mind, although yes there was quite the anamolous and record trough approaching prior to charley, Ivan is slowing down and there are many more factors involved in this forecast. Also remember that several major op models failed *badly* 72 to 84 hours out from Charlies landfall

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

and that failure was a terrible forecast into where else..the panhandle. I am not saying models are incorrect this time, I'm just pointing out that US landfall would still be many days away. esp with a bit slower movement.