Insight into S2k's favorite punching bag - A98E model

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
logybogy

Insight into S2k's favorite punching bag - A98E model

#1 Postby logybogy » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:26 am

Remember it is a "statistical" model. From what I understand, all it does is project paths based on previous historical tracks. It's basically pure climatology. It's "supposed" to give strange results sometimes.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#2 Postby x-y-no » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:29 am

Ummm ... that doesn't account for things like repeatedly trying to send Frances south across Cuba into Nicaragua or Honduras. No storm in history has done anything of the kind, so where did those statistics come from?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Cape Verde
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 564
Age: 70
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:53 pm
Location: Houston area

#3 Postby Cape Verde » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:31 am

I'm not buying it, either. The A98E obviously is smoking crack.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tronbunny
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1558
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:18 am
Location: Central FL

#4 Postby tronbunny » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:36 am

I know it's statistical.
That's the point.
It's there to remind us that it still takes humans to plug in the numbers and analyze the output, with human instinct and experience.
I still love it!
I don't believe it's right, but I love it!
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], riapal and 236 guests