WHY????!!!

[BUD]

Why when I see the forcast models on weather underground current do they so bunched up except for one???

[bahamaswx]

Because it's an outlier--and outliers are rarely the correct model.

[BUD]

HUH????

[BUD]

Do they always look that bunched up????

[chris_fit]

The only reason they look bunched up because they are in agreement. All the models forecast almost identical tracks.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

because the way the pattern is unfolding ...the models are picking up on similariities. also because, many of those models are based upon one model, which means those models are biased.

[mobilebay]

because the way the pattern is unfolding ...the models are picking up on similariities. also because, many of those models are based upon one model, which means those models are biased.

Good explanation.

[MBismyPlayground]

Just curious then if they are all in somewhat of an agreement. It looks once this monster hits Fla, it has its eye on the Carolina's, it think?? Or I could be having another blonde moment. But, if this is the case, why is local forecaster Ed Piotrosky still telling us that we in the Carolinas haviing nothing to worry about. I know what Charley did and that was nothing compared to this thing coming.

[george_r_1961]

Looks like the Carolinas and Virginia will be impacted by Ivan mid to late week. What the exact effects will be depends on the future track and intensity.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

Looks like the Carolinas and Virginia will be impacted by Ivan mid to late week. What the exact effects will be depends on the future track and intensity.

Agreed with george - the impacts we should be concerned with now are Jamaica, fLorda, and anywhere in between. The carolinas and virginia is a long shot at this point, with land interference and a due northerly component. stay tuned!@

[MBismyPlayground]

Well, just so you both will be aware there is a "purpose" to my question.
Yes, we are ALL concerned about the impact on Jamacia, Cuba and Fl. If, in fact, it does not appear to be heading MY way, I intend to direct friends, family, and who ever else in my direction, for safe haven. But it would be senseless to do so if this thing is heading my way as well, not very safe. As I have mentioned in previous posts, if my area is "safe" I will go out of my way to help any in need that ask. I personally feel that instead of alot of lip service and pats on the back, all communities that will not be affected by this monster, band together to offer support and aid to those that need it. Even if it means a temporary relocation.
I prefer counting my ducks before they hatch so I can formulate different plans of action.

[karenfromheaven]

Yes MB, I also use the models as an aid in understanding how a storm may move in the future. Are you familiar with the Penn State model site? ( http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/ ) I like viewing the animations because they show not only the projected storm track, but also the various high and low pressure areas. A great learing aid! (Especially their GFDL depiction -- very good) Or you could just look at the NHC plot and see if you are anywhere in the cone (SC is at the moment) and assume you are not in the clear if you're in there. That cone makes me feel in the dark sometimes, and the model information reassures me by giving me more insight into why that cone is there.

The more you question (local met, NHC, everyone!), ask, and learn, the better you will feel about this incredible phenomenon. Karen

[Guest]

MS, I feel your pain. Nobody can precisely predict where Ivan is going to end up. We've faced the same decisions here each time, to evacuate or to stay put? Have friends and family come stay with us, or are they safer where they are? I do think it's too far out to make the call for where it may hit in the Carolinas just yet. Good luck to you in whatever you decide to do.
...Jennifer...

[cswitwer]

Hey, MBismyPlayground.

I'm in Charleston. When the last few hurricanes threatened Florida, very little attention was given to our area-- and, if we asked about storm impact we were reminded that we were not in danger of a direct hit. (Charley, Frances, Bonnie, etc).

However, the scary thing about where we are located geographically is that anything that hits Florida from the western FL coast, South Florida, or even anything that rides up the eastern FL coast, has the opportunity to go back out over water for a day or two and then do whatever it wants.

Charley is case in point. Charley hit FL, moved into the waters of the Atlantic, and then in less than 12 hours the eye was heading right for SC. It was not as strong then, but Charley has already intensified once very quickly and unpredictably and then made an unexpected turn. We set our alarm for 4am to make sure we weren't in danger that night.

The issue with being in this area is that we know that we aren't going to get the first direct hit from Ivan, but we don't know if the storm will run up here quickly once it's through with FL. We'll have much less time to prepare and get the word out if that does happen.

I had no idea when I moved here. I thought you could see a hurricane coming for days... and that you'd have time to prepare. Not true in the Carolinas. Storms hit FL and then we have a day, maybe two, to determine if we're in danger at all.

FYI.