Best Hurricane Model

[LeeJet]

Which hurricane forecast model is the best-historically?

Why is the X-Trap even used? It seems like a horrible model with no sense.



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[x-y-no]

Ummm ... the xtrap isn't a model, it's just a straight-line extrapolation of the current course and speed. Just there for comparison purposes.

As to what's the best model, that's a difficult question and doesn't have the same answer in all situations. If there were one "best" model, there would be no sense in running so many.

Forecasting is still an art.

[nomolos]

i believe xtrap is if it stays on its current heading

[wsquared77]

if I remember correctly the x-trap is where the storm would go if it remained on the exact same course it's on now and never changed direction. I don't think it's a model they use for predictions

[BirdyCin]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml

[quickychick]

Why is the X-Trap even used? It seems like a horrible model with no sense.

The extrapolation makes a whole lot more sense than A98E (that's the yellow one pointing towards South America).

[Guest]

hopefully what nogaps and ukmet are saying doesnt happen, we don't need another hit on punta gorda!

[Dean4Storms]

One thing about these models, they seem to be northward bias as much with Ivan as they did with Frances for the whole trek across the Atlantic. The GFS for example had Ivan going more NW ever since he was back at 50w and at one point even had him going over Puerto Rico. I'm not sold on most of them right now as they continually show more of a northward turn but each run has to initialize him further west. The models for the most part underestimated the ridge guiding Frances and for some reason they are doing it again by the looks of it with Ivan. I wonder how much of this new info. they are fed from the Gulfstream IV missions have to do with this. Something just isn't right here. Remember a few days ago these same models, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, e.t.c... had Ivan screaming NW over Hispaniola and toward the Bahamas.

[Dan]

As far as this year goes, the GFDL does fairly well while a storm remains at lower latitudes, but as soon as you get north of the latitude of say Cuba, then the GFDL gets much worse, usually a significant westward bias because it usually does not acknowledge mid latitude systems such as troughs that can pull a storm poleward or eastward.