7:00 AM CDT ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL UPDATE, Sept. 8, 2004

[vbhoutex]

Hurricane Ivan has become an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane once again as he continues westward across the Southeastern Caribbean Sea at 16 mph. His eye was located by a reconnaissance
plane near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 65.5 West or about 190 miles
East of Bonaire in the Netherlands Antilles. Ivan is moving toward the west near 16 mph with a gradual turn toward the West-Northwest expected during the next 12 to 24 hours as the high pressure ridge to his North is expected to be eroded by an incoming upper level low expected by some guidance to approach the Bahamas from the Northeast. The current motion should bring the center of ivan North of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao later today. However, any deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring the center close to those islands. Maximum sustained winds in Ivan are near 140 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles. The minimum central pressure recently reported by a hurricane hunter plane was 955 mb, 28.20 inches. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches, possibly causing flash floods and mud slides can be expected along the path of Ivan especially in more hilly or mountainous areas. Hurricane warnings are in effect for Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning remain in effect for the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia, and for the entire Northern coast of Venezuela. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Southwestern coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo Westward to Pedernales. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the South coast of Haiti later this morning. Ivan is an extremely dangerous Hurricane and could strengthen further as he moves over Caribbean waters with high and deep heat content. All interests in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico should continue to closely monitor Ivans progress and be prepared to act quickly if watches or warnings are issued.

The remnants of tropical depression Frances are located about 50 miles North of Atlanta, Georgia and continue to dump copius amounts of rain along and to tbe North and East of her path. Flooding has been reported in many areas. All interests in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic areas should closely monitor their local weather sources for information on the possible effects of Frances in their areas.

One area of disturbed weather is located about 450 miles South-Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is moving West around 12 mph and some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days.

The tropical wave about halfway between Africa and Lesser Antilles Islands which is accompanied by a weak surface low pressure area continues to be poorly organized. There is some potential for slow development of this disturbance as it moves West-Northwestward at between 10 and 15 mph.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin no tropical storm formation is expected through Thursday.

This is not an official product. For details of the weather in your area in conjunction with these tropical cyclones contact the NHC or your local NWS office.

by David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)