Tampa NWS AFD

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KTBW 080624
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
224 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MID LEVEL DRY AIR...EVIDENT ON W/V IMAGERY
OVER THE GULF...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL
REDUCE THE OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE...BUT STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD
BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
FLOW WILL STILL BE FROM THE SW...SO SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. ALREADY HAVE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE TIMING INFORMATION OFF OF THE ZONES.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY FROM SW TO E/SE FLOW AS SFC AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILD IN FROM THE S. EXPECT WEAK FLOW...WITH A
WEAK SEA BREEZE. ALOFT...A SHEAR AXIS SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SRN ZONES...SO WILL GO WITH 10 PCT HIGHER POPS THERE...BUT STILL IN
SCT RANGE.

ON FRI MOVE TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW. WILL
GO WITH CLIMO POPS...WHICH ARE ABOUT 10 PCT LOWER THAN THE ETA AND
CLOSE TO THE GFS.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A STEADY RISE WITH SUNNIER DAYS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO FOR ONE MORE DAY ALONG THE COAST...AND THEN
CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH EAST FLOW ON FRI.

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)...FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD DEPENDS
A LOT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF HURRICANE IVAN. FOR NOW WILL HOPE FOR
THE BEST AND KEEP IVAN AWAY FROM FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TRACK AS SOME TAKE
IVAN TO THE EAST OF THE PENINSULA AND OTHERS OUT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. EITHER WAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE AN EASTERLY FLOW
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES
UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SCATTERED POPS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IVAN LOOMS LARGE FOR THE WEEKEND
FORECAST...BUT WILL SLOWLY TREND WINDS UP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 77 89 75 / 40 20 50 20
FMY 89 75 89 74 / 60 30 50 20
GIF 89 75 89 74 / 40 20 50 20
SRQ 88 76 88 75 / 50 20 50 20
BKV 88 75 89 72 / 50 20 40 20