Tuesday September 7, 2004 11:30am
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO
Ivan remains a well organized dangerous category 3 hurricane. Winds are back up to 115 mph and 963 mb.
I see a movement to the south of my previous track, given the low latitude. Not too much more to say about track.
Intensity is not as much of a problem as it was before. Waters are warm and the ULL that has created shear is forecast to move west. This makes me uneasy. I said this during Charley. In recent seasons, everytime a ULL moves west and leaves a good enviornment for a hurricane, we get a monster. Lili, Charley, Isidore.... Ivan? And, to make matters worse, I am no longer forecasting a landfall in Cuba.... therefore the intensification continues in my forecast. Time will tell. Ivan the terrible....
12 HRS-- 12.5N-- 62.6W-- 105 kt
24 HRS-- 13.8N-- 66.5W-- 110 kt
36 HRS-- 14.9N-- 70.1W-- 115 kt
48 HRS-- 16.0N-- 75.0W-- 115 kt
72 HRS-- 17.5N-- 79.0W-- 120 kt
96 HRS-- 20.0N-- 83.0W-- 125 kt
120 HRS- 22.3N-- 86.8W-- 135 kt
