18Z GFS

[obxhurricane]

While not completely sold...I have to admit it actually makes sense...at least through 96 hours or so.

Supporting the case for the GFS is of course the GFDL...but to some extent the latest runs from the BAMMS.

Whatever the case may be...central Florida will feel the affect of this cane...but could possibly be spared the worst...watch out Savannah!

[yoda]

I agree.

[PurdueWx80]

Ok, so the 18z GFS is still slowing the storm to a complete stop for way too long. I think it will slow down, but not for that much or that long. It gets to within 70 miles or so from the Cape, then slowly moves north towards the GA/FL bend (not sure what the real/regional name is for this area). The trough ends up catching her and taking her into SC after that. The model is ~12 hours faster than the 18Z Eta and MM5 with the trough in the west though. This is why it takes it to the north, but then the upper flow looks really fishy by 120 hours (flattens western trough and has an unusually deep trough to the east of the Canadian Maritimes. Something just doesn't look right about that pattern, so I'm not buying it yet. I do think Frances will slow down at some point over the Bahamas as the steering flow becomes weaker, but as the ridge builds in response to the western trough, she'll get nudged west into FL. The end result is the same general idea as the NHC, but I think it will be slightly slower. Of course, the 18Z Eta is much faster and further south. Also, it should be noted that the GFDL has been shifting slightly left with each run. It is still further north and east than any other model, but the 18z has her going towards the SC/GA coast or so....which is further west than previous runs. 00Z GFDL just came up, and it shows a track parallel to the FL coast several hundred miles out, with a sudden jerk towards the SC/GA border on the last model time step. So basically, the forecast for the next 60-90 hours will be very difficult for all involved. I foresee a record-breaking evacuation coming from this storm - unfortunate, but necessary.

[tw861]

The GFDL is run off of the GFS so there should be no suprise that they have simular solutions. If the GFS is out to lunch it's likely that the GFDL will be also.

[yoda]

Well the BAMMs show the same as the GFS/GFDL.