18z ETA Direct hit on MIAMI!

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

18z ETA Direct hit on MIAMI!

#1 Postby Vortex » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:20 pm

Looking at some of the better performing models the last few days eta is one as well as lbar I disagree with NHC's 72 hour landfall...It's not going to Melbourne, I do not expect it to make landfall any further North than Jupiter and I'm callig for a landfall between Miami and West Palm Beach. Here's the 18z ETA:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5280
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#2 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:23 pm

:eek: Wow reminds me of 12 years ago.
0 likes   
Top
ericinmia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1573
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 11:15 pm
Location: Miami Lakes, FL

#3 Postby ericinmia » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:05 pm

yikes... thats no good!
0 likes   
Top
wsquared77
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 186
Age: 48
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 6:50 pm
Location: New Bern NC
Contact:
Contact wsquared77

#4 Postby wsquared77 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:07 pm

that sux...but didn't I read somewhere on another post that eta isn't really a model?
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38264
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#5 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:07 pm

wsquared77 wrote:that sux...but didn't I read somewhere on another post that eta isn't really a model?


ETA is a model, just not a very good tropical model. Better with snowstorms and such.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

#6 Postby canegrl04 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:08 pm

Uh Oh :eek: :eek: :eek:

Can imagine what a strong cat 4 hurricane can do to a big city like Miami
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38264
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#7 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:11 pm

canegrl04 wrote:Uh Oh :eek: :eek: :eek:

Can imagine what a strong cat 4 hurricane can do to a big city like Miami


Andrew, only move the Homestead damage to downtown.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
obxhurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 178
Joined: Tue Aug 26, 2003 7:08 pm
Location: Outer Banks of North Carolina
Contact:
Contact obxhurricane

#8 Postby obxhurricane » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:23 pm

Past history shows the ETA is not anywhere near reliable when it concerns a tropical cyclone. I'd be focusing on the GFS...which is now singing the same tune for consecutive runs...
0 likes   
Top
cebers01
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 44
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 10:14 pm

#9 Postby cebers01 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:28 pm

BINGO OBX! WE HAVE A WINNER! Watch for something between the GFDL and GFS models to be indicated in NHC forecast at 11PM. The outliers that have shown her slowing enough to turn a bit more north may yet verify... And as for the LBAR, I'm not sure it's much better, as I think its being extrapolated out too far still yet... Another 24 hours, and let's see where we are...
0 likes   
Top
lwg8tr

Now we count the GDFL as accurate

#10 Postby lwg8tr » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:45 pm

cebers01 wrote:BINGO OBX! WE HAVE A WINNER! Watch for something between the GFDL and GFS models to be indicated in NHC forecast at 11PM. The outliers that have shown her slowing enough to turn a bit more north may yet verify... And as for the LBAR, I'm not sure it's much better, as I think its being extrapolated out too far still yet... Another 24 hours, and let's see where we are...


Seems like we pick the models which agree with our forecasts. The GDFL and the GFS have been awful this week, they have uderestimated the ridge, went way to east and north. They were so lousy acording to the NHC's own guys on the ground, they think these models are hosed. This is a Florida storm, The Cape to Miami. This model talk is as silly as the threads in which we study wobbles on a 12 frame satellite image.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#11 Postby dhweather » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:48 pm

The ETA is a short range nont-really-tropical model.

That said, it's done a pretty good job with Frances.
I this is a little South, but it's still in the range of the clustering of models.

Now, A98E, HA!!!!
0 likes   
Top
obxhurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 178
Joined: Tue Aug 26, 2003 7:08 pm
Location: Outer Banks of North Carolina
Contact:
Contact obxhurricane

#12 Postby obxhurricane » Wed Sep 01, 2004 7:08 pm

Seems like we pick the models which agree with our forecasts.


I've been saying for days this storm would make landfall near Cape Canaveral.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: kenayers, MarioProtVI and 334 guests