Is there any way of hitting GA/SC/NC?

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tallbunch
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Is there any way of hitting GA/SC/NC?

#1 Postby tallbunch » Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:33 pm

thoughts?
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c5Camille

#2 Postby c5Camille » Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:35 pm

yes... if it turns North... it would come right at you...
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#3 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:39 pm

The chances are slim to none IMO.
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#4 Postby seahawkjd » Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:40 pm

There's a chance yes, fortunately its looking like less and less of a chance but if the ridge weakens then yeah it would head north following the path of least resistance. Since there's really no trough to block it and pull it north away from Florida, it all depends on that ridge really, well that and about 100,000 other small influences that make them so hard to predict.
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#5 Postby krisj » Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:42 pm

My parents live on HHI and are to come here, to Charleston, to help landscape my yard this weekend. I would like to know too! I don't know whether the nurseries would think I am insane for thinking about planting this weekend but at the same time, I don't want to wait and have nothing happen and wait too long to order and have things delivered.
Seems like such a small problem compared to anyone living in Fl, for sure.
My parents have talked about word of mandatory evacuations in HHI. IS that so?
At noon the local met basically said things looked good for us. I am going ahead with my plans. As much as locals who have been through Hugo keep warning me that "it's on the same track", I think that by now we would be well in the middle of the cone. We are not.
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#6 Postby tallbunch » Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:44 pm

yes kris on Friday which is totally wrong. Our county seems to do this all the time and close schools. It will really hurt them because when a actual hurricane comes, no one will leave.
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#7 Postby krisj » Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:47 pm

What is the Savannah news saying? Are they worried?
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#8 Postby tallbunch » Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:50 pm

no, they are pretty confident that this is going to FL and we might get a shower or 2. That's it.
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#9 Postby AlexiBlue » Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:52 pm

Okay, perhaps the Hurricane will not hit the GA/SC/NC coast directly, but neither did Charley! Granted, Charley came in from the other side. However, doesn't anyone out there think that Frances could do some major damage in the East Coast states even if it does hit Florida first?

From what I can tell in my very limited experience, there is every reason to think it will go north after landfall - cutting into Georgia and then the Carolinas as a Hurricane then tropical storm. If it hits as a strong Cat 4 or Cat 5, could not parts of Georgia/SC/NC experience wind and rain as bad as being in a major Tropical Storm or Cat 1 or 2 Hurricane?

I know some think that this thing will cross Florida and go into the Gulf. But I don't think so - and neither do the residents of Charleston, who remember Hugo all too well. The shelves are empty here of water, batteries, generators, etc. - and everyone is talking about evacuations here.
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#10 Postby krisj » Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:56 pm

I haven't been to the store in days wondering what I should do and waiting to see, do I buy canned goods or restock my freezer?
I just now got an email bulletin from my POA that outlined Emergency Weather procedures and evacuation routes and returning to the neighborhood plans.
That is a first here. AlexiBlue, you do have a point, we can still get strong weather here even if lanfall is in FL. I guess it is something to think about. Tomorrow I am going to the store to stock up. Hope there is stuff left!
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#11 Postby AlexiBlue » Wed Sep 01, 2004 2:05 pm

Don't forget to gas up your car! It's amazing that people forget to do that so often. If you do have to get out - that would be the most important thing you need!

Also, find out where your local shelter is. If we don't get a Hurricane in Charleston, we still may get major enough weather to warrant leaving low-lying areas or places where wind strength will be high. And, in those cases, you usually don't get enough notice to leave the area - only enough to get to a shelter.
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TLHR

#12 Postby TLHR » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:37 pm

krisj wrote:I haven't been to the store in days wondering what I should do and waiting to see, do I buy canned goods or restock my freezer?

That is a first here. AlexiBlue, you do have a point, we can still get strong weather here even if lanfall is in FL. I guess it is something to think about. Tomorrow I am going to the store to stock up. Hope there is stuff left!


If Frances comes ashore in Melbourne, Charleston really won't see anything except high surf on the barrier islands.

If it comes ashore in Jacksonville, that may be close enough to get heavy rain, some wind, and some storm surge because of the angle of the land in relation to Frances arrival.

If it comes ashore in GA, which is a possibility, remote but possible, that would be bad. On shore winds and heavy rain would cause wide-spread flooding due to the already saturated ground.

If you live to the right of Hwy 17, it may be wise to make some kind of evacuation plan, just in case.
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#13 Postby krisj » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:39 pm

Thanks for the info TLHR. I'm making sure my car is filled and I have cash tomorrow.
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TLHR

#14 Postby TLHR » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:44 pm

One thing I observed with Floyd, is that as it turned north, it became egg-shaped, with rain falling well advanced of the actual eye.

If Frances does the same thing, you'll have less time to evacuate rain-free.

Now would be an excellent time to coat your car windows with Rain-X, or similar rain repellent.
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hurricane_lover

#15 Postby hurricane_lover » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:46 pm

The northern jog is soon to happen, imo.
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#16 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:53 pm

hurricane_lover wrote:The northern jog is soon to happen, imo.


the last several frames have been 270...exactly...it is likely a wobble, but a shift north is nearly impossible right now.
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#17 Postby Rieyeuxs » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:57 pm

Gaston was only a TD, and we in the carolinas (and virgina) can attest to the strength of "just a TS". Charley as a hurricane was not as destructive as Gaston...
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