Tampa Bay AFD

[Rainband]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 010730
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
330 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...SFC AND UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA AS FRANCES MOVES CLOSER TO THE STATES. THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN
E/NE FLOW THROUGH FRI. TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES SPARKING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION...AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. THEN AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR
THURS AND FRI AS FRANCES DRAWS NEARER...CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
LIMITED WITH ONLY 30-40% POPS. TEMPS REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)...LOOKS AS IF THE MODELS AND REALITY ARE
FINALLY CONVERGING WITH REGARD TO FRANCES. FIRST...THE REALITY.
WHILE FRANCES CONTINUES TO MOVE AT A HEARTY CLIP (15 KT)...FASTER
THAN MOST MODELS EARLIER SUGGESTED...WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE REMNANT WEAK TROUGH IS DISSIPATING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE OTHER KEY PLAYER...A FORMER GULF OF
ALASKA TROUGH NOW EDGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW COAST...IS NOT ONLY
TAKING ITS TIME SLIPPING EAST BUT APPEARS TO BE DIGGING AS WELL.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THESE PLAYERS...AND NOW ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING FRANCES TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
IN 72-96H. GFS 00Z RUN...FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THREE DAYS...IS
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO ITS 18Z RUN...PERHAPS A BIT TO THE LEFT AND A TAD
FASTER. THE NOGAPS RIPS FRANCES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA FROM
E TO W ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE CANADIAN JOGS IT ALONG THE COAST
BEFORE BRIEFLY TAKING IT INLAND NEAR THE FIRST COAST. THE ETA IS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS...AND THE UKMET THROUGH 72H IS CLOSE TO THE
NOGAPS. ONLY THE GFDL CONTINUES A NORTHERLY TURN...BUT HAS SHIFTED
FARTHER TO THE LEFT IN RECENT RUNS.

AS WESTERN TROUGH DIGS AND REMAINS POSITIVE...EASTERN U.S. RIDGE
MAY ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN...AND MODELS ACTUALLY REINFORCE THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE WHICH HELPS TO BRIEFLY BEND FRANCES BACK TO
THE WEST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. IN 24H WE SHOULD KNOW FOR CERTAIN WITH
(HOPEFULLY) ASSISTANCE FROM ADDITIONAL RAOBS.

FOR NOW...HAVE RUN A MODIFIED GFS SOLUTION TO MATCH THE TPC TRACK
AND CAPPED GRIDDED WINDS AT 34 KT. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE STILL
GREAT UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEST CENTRAL FL.
THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD SUGGEST PRIMARILY A WIND AND RAIN MAKER FOR
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND N SUNCOAST...BUT A FASTER SOLUTION WOULD
AMPLIFY THE WIND (AND "BACKSIDE" SURGE) IMPACTS WHILE A SLOWER
SOLUTION WOULD AMPLIFY FRESHWATER FLOOD IMPACTS.

STILL A DAY OR SO BEFORE WE NEED TO PINPOINT...BUT A COUPLE OF THINGS
TO KEEP IN MIND: 1) THIS STORM IS MUCH LARGER IN AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CHARLEY SO GENERAL EFFECTS WILL BE FELT BY MORE FOLKS. 2) THERE IS
A STRONG HIGH BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE
WIND IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS THIS
SEMICIRCLE OUT OF WEST CENTRAL/SW FL...BUT ANY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH
COULD SHIFT THE MAX WINDS AS WELL. AS USUAL...STAY TUNED.

AFTER FRANCES PASSES...SW FLOW OF VERY TROPICAL AIR SHOULD ENSURE
SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ON LABOR DAY...WITH A GRADUAL DRYING AS
UPPER RIDGE TAKES OVER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E/NE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LIGHT FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE STARTING THURS AS HURRICANE FRANCES MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 76 91 76 / 50 30 30 20
FMY 92 74 92 75 / 60 30 30 20
GIF 93 75 92 74 / 50 30 30 20
SRQ 91 74 91 75 / 50 30 30 20
BKV 91 72 91 72 / 50 30 40 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...BSG

[TampaFl]

[hibiscushouse]

Thank you for that information. Will you mind updating it as time goes on?

[Rainband]

Thank you for that information. Will you mind updating it as time goes on?

no problem.

[hibiscushouse]

ABC, channel 11, Denis Phillips meteologist is telling us over here on the central west coast, Tampa Bay area, that we do not need to be worried about hurricane force winds. This is making me feel better, but I wonder if he's correct. The model on their news is showing the storm going up into the center of the State near Ocala.
What do you all think?
And, btw, I never thought I'd end up posting on this site, but rather lurking for your insight. You all intimidate me terribly with your knowledge. But, I do want to thank you for being so kind to those of us just joining you not knowing what in the heck they are talking about.
Right now, I can't tell you how much it's appreciated.

[baygirl_1]

hibiscushouse--
Welcome! I've only been posting here a short time myself, but have been lurking probably for more than a year. This is a great place to "pick the brains" of those more meteorologically in the know. They are so patient with those of us who are anxious to know.
I love your little part of Florida! My family used to vacation in Indian Rocks every summer when I was little. I have some really special memories from there!