00:00 UTC Models for Frances moving 285 13kt

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040901 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040901 0000 040901 1200 040902 0000 040902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.7N 66.3W 21.7N 69.0W 22.8N 71.3W 23.9N 73.1W
BAMM 20.7N 66.3W 21.5N 68.8W 22.4N 70.8W 23.3N 72.4W
A98E 20.7N 66.3W 21.5N 68.9W 22.6N 71.4W 23.7N 73.5W
LBAR 20.7N 66.3W 21.6N 69.1W 22.5N 71.5W 23.5N 73.8W
SHIP 120KTS 124KTS 124KTS 122KTS
DSHP 120KTS 124KTS 124KTS 122KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040903 0000 040904 0000 040905 0000 040906 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.8N 74.7W 26.4N 77.2W 26.9N 79.0W 28.1N 81.3W
BAMM 24.2N 73.9W 26.3N 76.6W 27.0N 79.2W 27.5N 81.6W
A98E 24.3N 75.5W 25.7N 79.0W 25.6N 80.5W 22.3N 70.1W
LBAR 24.3N 76.2W 26.0N 80.3W 27.1N 83.3W 27.8N 85.2W
SHIP 119KTS 112KTS 101KTS 87KTS
DSHP 119KTS 112KTS 76KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.7N LONCUR = 66.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 20.0N LONM12 = 63.4W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 19.6N LONM24 = 60.7W
WNDCUR = 120KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 115KT
CENPRS = 939MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 130NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 150NM

[PurdueWx80]

[BonesXL]

Could this possibly mean that the NHC track could get shifted again more W or S at the 11:00pm advisory....

[PurdueWx80]

That's a pretty big spread, although the only real outlier is the GFDL. It keeps wanting this darn thing to go to the Carolinas. It's interesting that both BAM models take her NW then WNW again before landfall. They must be seeing something that strengthens to the north of the storm.

[Weatherboy1]

If you look at the 18Z GFS and the tropical models, including LBAR and the BAM runs, you see they hook fairly sharply to the left late in the period. What gives? Is it that the first shortwave/front that captured Gaston is going to weaken the west end of the ridge, allowing Frances to slow down and turn more NW ... but then, the next high will shove her westward? Or something else? I certainly don't like any shift further S and W.

[tampastorm]

I am no pro, but I just dont see anything in the latest loop , that justifies WNW.

[btsgmdad]

Everything I see right now is WNW, looks like the poor Turks and Caicos get waylaided again.

[FLAgirl]

I don't see the time that these models were run. What is the link to this chart??

[Jersey storm]

Man,take your pick?

[anjou]

So if you were an emergency management official along the east coast of or center of Florida.. how on earth would you handle this?

[BensonTCwatcher]

If you trend the models through 36 hours, it does not say South and West to me. Am I correct? ( throw the A89 in the can)

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to be the 18z runs and they are reacting to the ridge dropping through the Great Lakes, they are still trying to get the handle on how strong and southward it reaches but I'm sure that is why some of these models turn the TC back to a more wnw track late in the period.

I still am sticking with what I've been saying since last week, this storm will make landfall over south Florida, south of Jupiter and I'm leaning heavily on a track into the eastern GOM with another landfall on the upper Gulf coast, probably the Panhandle. A Georges' type track just a little further north and a little further east once in the GOM.

[dhweather]

The 72 hour ETA has a high centered over West VA, that may be what is contributing to the
west motion late in the BAM models.

[Javlin]

If you go back and look at the last three or four LBAR it has really been consistent.That could all be @"% if she flies N.To this point has been the closest to her track.As AF MET said look at those extrapolation points they keep S way S.

[Brent]

What on earth is wrong with the A98E? LOL!!!

NHC better hope the LBAR is wrong.

[mobilebay]

Looks to be the 18z runs and they are reacting to the ridge dropping through the Great Lakes, they are still trying to get the handle on how strong and southward it reaches but I'm sure that is why some of these models turn the TC back to a more wnw track late in the period.

I still am sticking with what I've been saying since last week, this storm will make landfall over south Florida, south of Jupiter and I'm leaning heavily on a track into the eastern GOM with another landfall on the upper Gulf coast, probably the Panhandle. A Georges' type track just a little further north and a little further east once in the GOM.

as you can read in my other posts, me and you have the EXACT same track.