The path of least resistance...

[obxhurricane]

Let me first say that I feel strongly that Frances is destined for landfall along the Central or Northern Florida East coast. The model consensus is in that area...and right now the models are doing the best they can.

There is really no way this storm can recurve in time to make landfall in the Carolinas...except for the classic signature of a coastal trough showing up on the models along the SE coast. This is somewhat typical when a storm this large approaches the coast and high pressure is located to the north. The only fly in the proverbial ointment I see is a slowing down of Frances when she nears the Central coast of Florida due to the weakness created by said coastal trough...then waits to be picked up later.

Again...I don't see this happening...I'm not wanting this to happen...but I would like to have a good discussion on this scenario.

[btsgmdad]

Just saw Bill Kamal say the same thing. If the High over the continent builds in quickly, Central Fla South, if theres a weakness, then North.

[Stormsfury]

Let me first say that I feel strongly that Frances is destined for landfall along the Central or Northern Florida East coast. The model consensus is in that area...and right now the models are doing the best they can.

There is really no way this storm can recurve in time to make landfall in the Carolinas...except for the classic signature of a coastal trough showing up on the models along the SE coast. This is somewhat typical when a storm this large approaches the coast and high pressure is located to the north. The only fly in the proverbial ointment I see is a slowing down of Frances when she nears the Central coast of Florida due to the weakness created by said coastal trough...then waits to be picked up later.

Again...I don't see this happening...I'm not wanting this to happen...but I would like to have a good discussion on this scenario.

Exactly ... BINGO ...

Frances has continued to steadily chug along at roughly 15-16 mph, and has picked up some FWD speed today ... In fact, the GFS Ensembles don't call for a breakdown of the ridge until late Monday/Tuesday ... Frances will have made landfall on Sunday ...

The OP GFS foresees a stalling of the system, but what? What's there to stall it? NOTHING ... At this current time, I see absolutely the same thing you're seeing, and I'm in 100% total agreement with your assessment ...

SF

[dhweather]

Can I get fries with that order?