Maryland?
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xBabyGirl15x
- Tropical Wave
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- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:02 pm
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Maryland?
Is there any possibality that this storm could come up the SC/NC coast and be a threat to Maryland?
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PanAmMIA
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 66
- Age: 62
- Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:48 pm
- Location: St. Cloud, FL; Islamorada, FL; Tortola, BVI
NWS Sterling, VA FCST Discussion
Picked up the following discussion from the NWS-Sterling, VA's FCST Discussion regarding a possible inland track of Frances.
Mike
LONG TERM (WED NGT-TUE)...
WHILE THE EYES OF THE MET COMMUNITY ARE (RIGHTLY) FIXED ON FRANCES
THINK WE'LL HV SVRL DAYS OF PLSNT LATE SUMMER WX INTO THE WKND. HIGH
PRES OVR NEW ENGLAND WL PRODUCE M/P SUN SKIES IN MID ATLC W/ HIGHS
L80S AND LOWS A60.
REGARDING FRANCES THE CONSENSUS IS...THERE IS NO CONSENSUS. I'VE
STOLEN SOME WORDS FM THE MRNG NCEP XTND DSCN...
"THE BIG QUESTION MARK OF THE PD IS THE TRACK OF HRCN FRANCES AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CONUS. THE MODELS HAVE QUITE AN ARRAY OF SOLNS. THE
00Z GFS...GFDL...AND NCEP MEAN HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS MORE TO THE
RIGHT...MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAROLINAS ON DAY 5/SUN TO DAY 6/MON
WHILE THE 00Z CAN GLOB AND NOGAPS ALONG WITH THE 30/12Z ECMWF TAKE
THE SYS NWWD ONCE MAKING LANDFALL IN SERN FL AROUND DAY 4/SAT. THE
UKMET HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT WITH ITS TRACK...BUT IT
STILL TAKES FRANCES INTO FL AROUND MLB ON DAY 4/SAT...WHICH IS THE
CLOSEST OP MODEL TO THE NHC TRACK. WITH MAINLY THE NCEP MODEL
MAKING THE BIG TURN AND SENDING THE SYS INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE
REST OF THE MODELS SEND THE SYS INTO FL."
ATTM THE OFFICIAL TRACK TAKES IT INTO CENTRAL SC ON DAY 6...AND NEAR
THE PANHANDLE OF WV NEXT TUE. GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF FRANCES THIS
WOULD OBVIOUSLY HV THE PTNL TO BE XTRMLY PROBLEMATIC FOR THE LWX CWA
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WK...MAINLY IN TERMS OF RNFL/PTNL FLDG. BUT
THRU SUN WL KEEP THE MID ATLC DRY. FOR NOW CHC POPS MON/TUE...BUT IF
THE PLAY UNFOLDS WITH THIS SCRIPT WE'LL BE RAISING POPS IN THE
COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED.
Mike
LONG TERM (WED NGT-TUE)...
WHILE THE EYES OF THE MET COMMUNITY ARE (RIGHTLY) FIXED ON FRANCES
THINK WE'LL HV SVRL DAYS OF PLSNT LATE SUMMER WX INTO THE WKND. HIGH
PRES OVR NEW ENGLAND WL PRODUCE M/P SUN SKIES IN MID ATLC W/ HIGHS
L80S AND LOWS A60.
REGARDING FRANCES THE CONSENSUS IS...THERE IS NO CONSENSUS. I'VE
STOLEN SOME WORDS FM THE MRNG NCEP XTND DSCN...
"THE BIG QUESTION MARK OF THE PD IS THE TRACK OF HRCN FRANCES AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CONUS. THE MODELS HAVE QUITE AN ARRAY OF SOLNS. THE
00Z GFS...GFDL...AND NCEP MEAN HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS MORE TO THE
RIGHT...MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAROLINAS ON DAY 5/SUN TO DAY 6/MON
WHILE THE 00Z CAN GLOB AND NOGAPS ALONG WITH THE 30/12Z ECMWF TAKE
THE SYS NWWD ONCE MAKING LANDFALL IN SERN FL AROUND DAY 4/SAT. THE
UKMET HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT WITH ITS TRACK...BUT IT
STILL TAKES FRANCES INTO FL AROUND MLB ON DAY 4/SAT...WHICH IS THE
CLOSEST OP MODEL TO THE NHC TRACK. WITH MAINLY THE NCEP MODEL
MAKING THE BIG TURN AND SENDING THE SYS INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE
REST OF THE MODELS SEND THE SYS INTO FL."
ATTM THE OFFICIAL TRACK TAKES IT INTO CENTRAL SC ON DAY 6...AND NEAR
THE PANHANDLE OF WV NEXT TUE. GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF FRANCES THIS
WOULD OBVIOUSLY HV THE PTNL TO BE XTRMLY PROBLEMATIC FOR THE LWX CWA
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WK...MAINLY IN TERMS OF RNFL/PTNL FLDG. BUT
THRU SUN WL KEEP THE MID ATLC DRY. FOR NOW CHC POPS MON/TUE...BUT IF
THE PLAY UNFOLDS WITH THIS SCRIPT WE'LL BE RAISING POPS IN THE
COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED.
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PanAmMIA
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 66
- Age: 62
- Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:48 pm
- Location: St. Cloud, FL; Islamorada, FL; Tortola, BVI
Re: Maryland?
xBabyGirl15x wrote:Is there any possibality that this storm could come up the SC/NC coast and be a threat to Maryland?
I think the "dream" storm for this area would be a Cat5 coming into the mouth of the Chesapeake and tracking due north. It would certainly clean out Fells Point a bit
Mike
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