25N/75W

[GalvestonDuck]

Gonna go out on an amateur limb and say what I said to coworkers earlier today, when they asked what Frances was doing and if we (Texans) needed to worry.

In my amateur opinion, it looks to me like if Frances is north of 25N and west of 75N by Friday, she's less likely (I emphasize LESS likely) to be any kind of a threat to west or central GOM states. There's still a chance she could cross over the peninsula and into the GOM, but it's greatly diminished. However, if she's still south of 25N at 75W on Friday, we should be more concerned.

Don't bash me. It's just what I'm gathering from everyone else's thoughts and forecasts here. And I know, the immediate concern right now is for Florida. But those of us here in TX and all along the GOM are watching also and when the coworkers asked, I gave them my thoughts.

[KatDaddy]

I am also watching Frances closely and currently feel the Upper TX Coast is way out of the threat zone this time however there is only one possibilty that I will be watching in the upcoming days as she approaches Florida. There has been some talk by local FLA Mets of high pressure building in from the MidWest and combining with the Bermuda high to form a strong ridge. IF and a big IF, should this occur there will be a possibilty for France to move much more W/WNW and into the GOM.
I will cross that bridge if we get to it. This is the only "fly in the ointment" if you will for TX.

As I have posted several times before, its the homebrew that comes me much more in the upcoming month for TX and LA.

[Pileus]

I listened to Dr. Lyons 5 minutes ago and he never mentioned a High
possibly affecting Frances but he's still using the Florida cone.

[KeyLargoDave]

Well, you know, when you consider the cone at this point, nobody's sure it will go up the penisula and not across or even under the Keys. The models are nicely clustered, but they do indicate a strong northwest component by 70 west, 75 for sure.

If it's not as strongly northwest by then, we are both going to worry. I also want to try to understand the possibility that it goes northwest for a while, then bumps into more ridging/less weakness and starts tracking straight west again near my latitude. This would be sorta the same as Charley's supposed "sudden turn," which was just a little sooner/stronger than the exact middle of the forecast track.