Comments on the Atlantic (29.08.2004 0200 UTC)

[DoctorHurricane2003]

N 29.08.2004 [SUN AUG 29 2004]
0200 UTC [09:00 PM CDT]


GENERAL DISCUSSION OF PREVIOUS COMMENTS

In terms of Frances, my forecast has so far been on track, including the weakening ERC phase that is currently occurring with the system, which is expected (Original Forecast for this point in time: 120 KTS with variable ERC between 110-165 KT). For Gaston, the track was on per the previous comments, however the strength was overestimated in the previous comments, but correctly predicted in the ones issued for 27.08.2004. For Hermine, I did not correctly predict the time for initial advisories, but did expect it to become a cyclone today.


HURRICANE FRANCES (06L)

Frances is currently in a weakened phase (110 KT, 954 MB), and this intensity should continue through midday tomorrow. After that, expect a slow, steady strengthening with occasional ERCs until the Bahamas where rapid deepening to a Category 5 in the Central/Western part of the archipelago is expected. In terms of location, expect a continued W track, eventually WNW as Frances approaches the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas. All persons in the Bahamian and Turks and Caicos Islands should begin preparations for a very intense hurricane soon. In terms of the Southeast, I continue to expect a strike on S FL (greatest chance), with C/N FL at the 2nd place chance.

WIND INTENSITY FORECAST
INITIAL: 110 KT*
NEXT ADVISORY: 110 KT*
12 HR: 115 KT*
24 HR: 115 KT*
36 HR: 120 KT*
48 HR: 125 KT*
72 HR: 130 KT*
96 HR: 135 KT*
120 HR: 145 KT*

*NOTE: Eyewall Replacement Cycles and the currently slight southerly shear that is affecting the system could vary the intensity at any time between 110 and 165 KT through 120 Hours. The southerly shear should cease after 24-36 Hours. All forecasts on strengths in positions past 3 days out are subject to large errors and are only meant to give a general idea of where a cyclone may be in that day range.

GENERAL U.S. LANDFALL REGION PROBABILITIES
NOTE: THE REGIONS HAVE HAD CHANGES, PLEASE NOTE.
FLORIDA KEYS: 10%
CAPE SABLE, FL TO MELBOURNE, FL: 52%
MELBOURNE, FL TO ST MARY'S RIVER INLET, FL/GA: 29%
ST MARY'S INLET, FL/GA TO CHARLESTON, SC: 2%
CHARLESTON, SC TO CAPE HATTERAS, NC: 7%



TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON (07L)

Gaston continues to weaken over land and should become extratropical within the next 48 Hours over the Atlantic waters south of New England.



TROPICAL STORM HERMINE (08L)

Tropical Storm Hermine formed this afternoon with 40 MPH winds and continues to look organized. Expect a curve NW and N and eventual absorption by Gaston through 48 hours.

WIND INTENSITY FORECAST
INITIAL: 35 KT
NEXT ADVISORY: 40 KT
12 HR: 45 KT
24 HR: 50 KT
36 HR: 45 KT
48 HR: ABSORBED BY GASTON

***END

[Dean4Storms]

Sounds about right on to me. Can't much see Frances landfalling above Palm Bch.

Do you feel as I do that by the time she starts trying to round the ridge that it will take her into the eastern GOM? I do, alot of these models have had to keep coming west as they have repeatedly underestimated the strength and push of this ridge, therefore I think a tad west which would put her over into the GOM.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

It's possible Dean...it's just hard to say anything about the GOM this far out.