Frances 00:00UTC Models moving 270 west

[*StOrmsPr*]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 300017
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040830 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040830 0000 040830 1200 040831 0000 040831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.8N 55.8W 19.1N 58.1W 19.4N 60.8W 19.9N 63.7W
BAMM 18.8N 55.8W 18.8N 58.3W 18.8N 61.0W 19.0N 63.9W
A98E 18.8N 55.8W 18.8N 57.5W 19.3N 59.6W 20.1N 62.0W
LBAR 18.8N 55.8W 19.1N 57.9W 19.4N 60.4W 19.7N 63.3W
SHIP 110KTS 107KTS 107KTS 109KTS
DSHP 110KTS 107KTS 107KTS 109KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040901 0000 040902 0000 040903 0000 040904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.5N 66.7W 22.0N 71.8W 23.0N 75.0W 23.8N 76.9W
BAMM 19.4N 66.6W 20.5N 71.2W 22.1N 74.1W 23.9N 76.5W
A98E 20.7N 64.9W 22.8N 70.4W 24.7N 74.9W 26.6N 77.7W
LBAR 20.2N 66.1W 21.2N 71.3W 22.8N 74.8W 24.7N 77.0W
SHIP 110KTS 107KTS 99KTS 92KTS
DSHP 110KTS 107KTS 99KTS 92KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.8N LONCUR = 55.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 18.6N LONM12 = 54.4W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 18.1N LONM24 = 53.0W
WNDCUR = 110KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 115KT
CENPRS = 954MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 110NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 80NM RD34NW = 110NM

[Dean4Storms]

Note the UKMET has the storm moving wnw right now and above 20n as Frances gets to 58w. Throw that track out after you extrapolate if a turn back to wnw or nw doesn't occur tonight!

[btsgmdad]

There's little chance this won't be a Florida event. We will certainly pray for you guys this week.

[Brent]

Bad.

Farther south.

[cycloneye]

Oh boy 270 not good for the islands if it keeps moving that way.

[golter]

270 is actually good(compared to 240 - 260), the last few loops have it taking a nw jog again. We need her to get to 20N before 60W. That scenario would move models to the east. They all seem to agree on NW turn later in the run.

[dhweather]

:(

There's little chance this won't be a Florida event. We will certainly pray for you guys this week.

Hurricane trivia:

What major Hurricane approached North Carolina, stalled, and recurved?
Pat Robertson led a massive prayer effort to keep it away.

[NFLnut]

Ok. I've been lurking .. and panicking. I live in north central Orlando. I just got walloped by Charley and have huge holes covered by tarps and even a Cat 1 storm would be VERY bad for this area! I don't wish this storm on anyone, but we just can't absorb another one right now. So I watch every update with anticipation and watch the models. Earlier today I was starting to feel pretty good in that since yesterday the track seemed to be going from the Keys all the way out to sea. Now the models are pointing directly at me!

Two questions:

1. Why do you guys keep saying that any W-SW trek is worse for Florida than its (prior) expected W-NW trek? It seems to me that the farther West we can get it to go (as if we have a say!) before it turns N-NW would be better for Florida. Please explain.

2. The GUNA model (at least the most recent I could find) still trends in a HUGO-like trek East of the Bahamas, off the coast of Florida, and towards te Carolinas. Granted, I can't find a more recent GUNA than 12Z, 8/29 (anyone have a link for one that is updated more frequently?)

[jlauderdal]

Note the UKMET has the storm moving wnw right now and above 20n as Frances gets to 58w. Throw that track out after you extrapolate if a turn back to wnw or nw doesn't occur tonight!

if this thing moves 290 or more in the next 24h than the dolphins win the super bowl

[golter]

Numer 2 Answers your own question. If it can trek further north the better chances of it turning north and missing florida. It will turn NW, its a given. The earlier the better, for FL's sake.

[NFLnut]

I figured that would probably be what you would say, but if it continues more westerly, then wouldn't it be more likely to go around the southern tip of FL and into the Gulf? Granted, I don't want it to turn back and cut across FL like Charley just did, but if it is going to eventually turn NW (Charley turned NE), then a little more westerly motion (than NW) would send it toward the central Gulf coast, wouldn't it?

[Patrick99]

I will bite on a SE FL hit once I see some solid, prolonged westerly movement without many significant NW "jogs"

[Deenac813]

Note the UKMET has the storm moving wnw right now and above 20n as Frances gets to 58w. Throw that track out after you extrapolate if a turn back to wnw or nw doesn't occur tonight!

if this thing moves 290 or more in the next 24h than the dolphins win the super bowl

Ok now I have 2 reasons for the storm to turn!

[kevin]

then a little more westerly motion (than NW) would send it toward the central Gulf coast, wouldn't it?<<

In short, no. You want it to go NW for sure, right now, not westward. Westward = bad.

[wjs3]

NFL Nut:

To try to answer your questions:

1) W or WSW for Florida is bad because as you can see, should the models verify, there's a NW turn coming. People are hoping that turn happens before the storm gets to Florida. A prolonged west--or even WSW course means the turn isn't coming yet. That being said, the NW turn isn't supposed to come for another day or so, so it's too early to panic.

Another thing that worries people is that though some models show Frances recurving before she gets to Fla, several of the model tracks (again, it sounds like you know where to find them) have the storm moving WNW right now...just by definition, those models can't be right, at least in their initial conditions. They miust be too far east. What you're hearing on the board is people still thinking that the turn is going to happen, but that the models are seeing it too soon--hence that turn becomes a turn into florida, not away from it.

You are right that Florida can also be spared by the storm continuing west and staying south of the state. People (and the models) aren't giving that scenario much of chance right now, though it certainly could happen that way too.

2) I just hopped online so I'm not sure what the latest GUNA is. Sorry.

Hey--don't panic. Now you know what a Tropical cyclone is like, even inland (I used to live in Central Fla), and you know how to prepare yourself. Just go do that now!

Hope this helps!

[MBryant]

I'm not saying this is going to happen, but it looks like it could set up for an east to west trek at Miami with a recurvature and west coast hit at Tampa. Somethig similar has happened in the past, but I can't recall the name of the storm.