Model, best for Frances' landfall, 7 days fm now?

[john186292]

what's the best model for predicting the landfall, in about 7 days?
I link to NHC's table of models, which rates them by past errors.{botom here}

First, .. what is the model with the longest trak in the MidAlantic map, linked fm 2K's homepage?

Is GFS different from the best-rated GFDL? NHC rated GFDL BEST! on the linked page below.

Summary of the NHC/TPC Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Guidance Models

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml

[KeyLargoDave]

John, I really think the public should look at models only to know what's out there, and then pay attention only to the NHC official track. There's so much expertise behind it, while one model can tell you anything, even if it's the one they consider "best."

I doubt any met is going to give you an answer more specific than that.

[Agua]

Weird. What happened to my post?

Well, it said essentially the same thing as KLDave.

[TerryAlly]

Also consider that 7-day forecast has a huge amount of margin of error.

Margins of error are:

12 hours - 48 nautical miles (nm)
24 hours - 89 nm
36 hours - 148 nm
48 hours - 164 nm
72 hours - 242 nm
5 days - 300 nm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/fo ... rors.shtml

[Agua]

Well, try again. The models are only tools.

Meteorologists use them to understand the peculiarities of the particular model and consider what is causing them to behave in the manner they are.

Human judgment is the final arbiter. They're only tools.

[Derecho]

Unfortunately that page hasn't been updated since 1997. That's 7 years, and the models have been modified a lot in that time.

The last few years, the best model has been the GUNA, which is an AVERAGE of the GFS, GFDL, UKMET, and NOGAPS tracks.

[john186292]

thanks! Derecho.

any idea where GUNA might be seen?

again, yours the BEST answer!