Amazing Developments Today

[Guest]

In a matter of hours we have gone from a serious South Fla threat to a decreasing threat by the hour.Yesterday the NHC track had Frances hauling WNW making a b-line toward South Fla.Now its making a slow right.. According to NHC & NWS discussions a High pressure was to be building in through the forecast period & now there is talk of weaknesses & shortwaves during the same period when the High was suppose to be building.What gives?

[dhweather]

That's just the nature of tropical systems. Stay tuned, tonight's advisories may vary again!

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

yea...i know...weather is really weird.

[NorthGaWeather]

I still expect the high to be building.

[wx247]

In a matter of hours we have gone from a serious South Fla threat to a decreasing threat by the hour.Yesterday the NHC track had Frances hauling WNW making a b-line toward South Fla.Now its making a slow right.. According to NHC & NWS discussions a High pressure was to be building in through the forecast period & now there is talk of weaknesses & shortwaves during the same period when the High was suppose to be building.What gives?

this surprises me coming from you... you know enough about weather to know that things change...sometimes rapidly. I am sure we still aren't through with Frances yet.

[Stormcenter]

In a matter of hours we have gone from a serious South Fla threat to a decreasing threat by the hour.Yesterday the NHC track had Frances hauling WNW making a b-line toward South Fla.Now its making a slow right.. According to NHC & NWS discussions a High pressure was to be building in through the forecast period & now there is talk of weaknesses & shortwaves during the same period when the High was suppose to be building.What gives?

And then tomorrow it will be a different story and Florida will boarding up their windows. Oh I'm just kidding, anyway come on now you know you can't too excited just yet when more than likely Florida is still in the danger zone until probably next Saturday.

[Stormcenter]

In a matter of hours we have gone from a serious South Fla threat to a decreasing threat by the hour.Yesterday the NHC track had Frances hauling WNW making a b-line toward South Fla.Now its making a slow right.. According to NHC & NWS discussions a High pressure was to be building in through the forecast period & now there is talk of weaknesses & shortwaves during the same period when the High was suppose to be building.What gives?

And then tomorrow it will be a different story and Florida will boarding up their windows. Oh I'm just kidding, anyway come on now you know you can't get too excited just yet when more than likely Florida is still in the danger zone until probably next Saturday.

[Patrick99]

To me, it's clearly moving NW. And look at its shape....it's clearly bulging on its north side and looks thin on its south side. It will be moving further north.

[Rainband]

Good

[NorthGaWeather]

I dunno about that looks WNW to me.

[wx247]

To me, it's clearly moving NW. And look at its shape....it's clearly bulging on its north side and looks thin on its south side. It will be moving further north.

I don't see what you are seeing.

[Guest]

In a matter of hours we have gone from a serious South Fla threat to a decreasing threat by the hour.Yesterday the NHC track had Frances hauling WNW making a b-line toward South Fla.Now its making a slow right.. According to NHC & NWS discussions a High pressure was to be building in through the forecast period & now there is talk of weaknesses & shortwaves during the same period when the High was suppose to be building.What gives?

this surprises me coming from you... you know enough about weather to know that things change...sometimes rapidly. I am sure we still aren't through with Frances yet.

I know what your saying wx247 its just a drastic change of events & people will be threatened none the less even if i'm not.

[wx247]

I know what your saying wx247 its just a drastic change of events & people will be threatened none the less even if i'm not.

Actually, the "official" track has not changed all that drastically.

[SouthernWx]

While models have given some indications that decrease the threat to south Florida, especially the Keys and SW coast, I caution everyone we are still dealing with a very fluid situation.

A major hurricane is difficult enough to accurately forecast 3 or 4 days out....beyond 5 is an educated crapshoot at best. Ken Cook is a chief meteorologist at an Atlanta tv station....a former NWS Warning Coordination meteorologist who has over thirty years experience. Ken is one of the most competent, professional forecasters I've ever met (and I've known Ken since I was 12). He never attempts to forecast a hurricane beyond 72 hours....it's simply too risky in his opinion.

There are too many variables...things on a mesoscale level in the atmosphere can happen that no model pick up....which can result in a cat-4 seemingly destined for Miami to end up a cat-2 in Wilmington.

All the latest (12z) GFS run has done is cause me more concern and uncertainty. Can Frances still end up a severe hurricane in Miami or Key Largo? You bet....I'd never change a forecast based on one model run after the past ten were consistent. However, with the latest model trend, it's now just as likely this hurricane could end up plowing into northeast Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina.

The angle at which this hurricane may approach the U.S. coastline means a shift of less than 100 miles left or right could mean the difference in landfall in Miami, Florida and Charleston, South Carolina. At this range, the margin of error is MORE than 100 miles.

Someone mentioned on another thread that this hurricane track was now looking like Floyd....so he was breathing a sigh of relief. What he should realize is Florida was EXTREMELY lucky in 1999. So was the Georgia coast....so was South Carolina (and even landfall occurred in a weakened condition, Floyd still took 60 lives from flooding) . If hurricane Floyd had maintained a WNW course for only another 12 hours, the result would have meant hurricane conditions along the entire northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina coasts. If Floyd's recurve had been more gentle (as I expect this hurricane's to be)....the area from West Palm Beach to Charleston would have been devastated -- as Floyd's intense core raked the beachfronts as the eye paralled the coast just offshore before moving inland near Savannah.

This is going to be a very severe hurricane....IMO more intense than Floyd. I won't be shocked to see 160+ mph sustained winds as Frances approaches the Bahamas....even 180 mph isn't out of the question. If you live anywhere along the southeast coast, particularly from south Florida to South Carolina....monitor this hurricane with an eagle eye, and if ordered to evacuate, don't delay. This isn't Floyd, and it isn't 1999....Florida's east coast (as Georgia's) was very lucky then...there's no guarantee they will be as fortunate this time.

[Derecho]

In a matter of hours we have gone from a serious South Fla threat to a decreasing threat by the hour.Yesterday the NHC track had Frances hauling WNW making a b-line toward South Fla.Now its making a slow right.. According to NHC & NWS discussions a High pressure was to be building in through the forecast period & now there is talk of weaknesses & shortwaves during the same period when the High was suppose to be building.What gives?

Nothing at ALL "amazing" about today. For 6 day model forecasts the amount of shifting today is perfectly normal and routine, even perhaps LESS than normal, and I'd expect precisely the same the next few days, either back S, or even further N.

There's a big obvious ridge for the next 4 days. The models are in complete agreement on the next 4 days, basically..that's actually impressive and amazing in and of itself.

It's impossible to predict ridge weaknesses 5-7 days out.

[SouthernWx]

While models have given some indications that decrease the threat to south Florida, especially the Keys and SW coast, I caution everyone we are still dealing with a very fluid situation.

A major hurricane is difficult enough to accurately forecast 3 or 4 days out....beyond 5 is an educated crapshoot at best. Ken Cook is a chief meteorologist at an Atlanta tv station....a former NWS Warning Coordination meteorologist who has over thirty years experience. Ken is one of the most competent, professional forecasters I've ever met (and I've known Ken since I was 12). He never attempts to forecast a hurricane beyond 72 hours....it's simply too risky in his opinion.

There are too many variables...things on a mesoscale level in the atmosphere can happen that no model pick up....which can result in a cat-4 seemingly destined for Miami to end up a cat-2 in Wilmington.

All the latest (12z) GFS run has done is cause me more concern and uncertainty. Can Frances still end up a severe hurricane in Miami or Key Largo? You bet....I'd never change a forecast based on one model run after the past ten were consistent. However, with the latest model trend, it's now just as likely this hurricane could end up plowing into northeast Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina.

The angle at which this hurricane may approach the U.S. coastline means a shift of less than 100 miles left or right could mean the difference in landfall in Miami, Florida and Charleston, South Carolina. At this range, the margin of error is MORE than 100 miles.

Someone mentioned on another thread that this hurricane track was now looking like Floyd....so he was breathing a sigh of relief. What he should realize is Florida was EXTREMELY lucky in 1999. So was the Georgia coast....so was South Carolina (and even landfall occurred in a weakened condition, Floyd still took 60 lives from flooding) . If hurricane Floyd had maintained a WNW course for only another 12 hours, the result would have meant hurricane conditions along the entire northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina coasts. If Floyd's recurve had been more gentle (as I expect this hurricane's to be)....the area from West Palm Beach to Charleston would have been devastated -- as Floyd's intense core raked the beachfronts as the eye paralled the coast just offshore before moving inland near Savannah.

This is going to be a very severe hurricane....IMO more intense than Floyd. I won't be shocked to see 160+ mph sustained winds as Frances approaches the Bahamas....even 180 mph isn't out of the question. If you live anywhere along the southeast coast, particularly from south Florida to South Carolina....monitor this hurricane with an eagle eye, and if ordered to evacuate, don't delay. This isn't Floyd, and it isn't 1999....Florida's east coast (as Georgia's) was very lucky then...there's no guarantee they will be as fortunate this time.

[spaceisland]

I suspect that the runs from now on will be much more credible if only because there will be more recon data available to feed into the cyber craws of the computers which spit these models out...
... when will the recon data be available today?

[Derecho]

I suspect that the runs from now on will be much more credible if only because there will be more recon data available to feed into the cyber craws of the computers which spit these models out...
... when will the recon data be available today?

Actually any recon data from in and around the storm today is basically irrelevant to whether there's a weakness in the ridge 6 days from now.

In terms of a model showing a NW turn in 5-6 days for Frances, the data from a Balloon launched in West Boondocks, Utah, today actually matters more right now han recon data from Frances.

[jlauderdal]

I suspect that the runs from now on will be much more credible if only because there will be more recon data available to feed into the cyber craws of the computers which spit these models out...
... when will the recon data be available today?

Actually any recon data from in and around the storm today is basically irrelevant to whether there's a weakness in the ridge 6 days from now.

In terms of a model showing a NW turn in 5-6 days for Frances, the data from a Balloon launched in West Boondocks, Utah, today actually matters more right now han recon data from Frances.

finally someone spoke up. what will matter is a g-4 mission which is scheduled for tuesday. at least we can get a good upper analysis of what is happening out in front of the system.