Thoughts and comments welcomed.
Robert.
FXUS62 KMLB 281915
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004
.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...STORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND TROPICAL STORM GASTON. GREATEST THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS GASTON DRIFTS
WESTWARD. WITH THE EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF THE TC OFFSHORE...
GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 MPH WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES (AS OPPOSED TO CLIMATOLOGICAL LIGHT AND VARIABLE).
SUN...T.S. GASTON FORECAST TO EDGE CLOSER TO THE SC COAST WITH DEEP
W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S...EVEN BEACHSIDE. IN FACT...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPS ALONG THE EAST COAST
(DAB/MLB/VRB) WHERE RECORD HIGHS COULD BE THREATENED. ETA DOES SHOW
A LATE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING WITH STORMS FIRING LATE IN THE AFTN
INTO THE EVE ALONG THE COAST BUT WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION. BOTH
ETA AND GFS SHOW DRIER AIR ESP OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHICH WILL
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES SO WILL GO BELOW GFS POPS (AND CLIMO) WITH
30%.
RECORD HIGHS SUN:
DAB 96 '38 MCO 96 '98 MLB 96 '99 VRB 95 '99
MON-WED...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FL STRAITS MON
AND SHIFT NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL FL BY WED. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE WIND
FLOW AND ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP MON...ALBEIT
LATE...BUT THEN EARLIER ON TUE/WED. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S
EXPECTED MON...COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL SLIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
FOR HIGHS MID WEEK WITH EARLIER SEA BREEZE ONSET. GFS MOS POPS
APPEAR TOO HIGH MON (~60%) AND WILL KEEP 40%.
THU-SAT...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING UPPER
HIGH OVER THE ATLC AND BENDING POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES MORE TO
THE WEST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SHE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND APPROACH THE SE BAHAMAS THU. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT FRANCES COULD RECURVE...IF IT FINDS ENOUGH WEAKNESSES
IN THE RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF IT. BY EXTRAPOLATING THE NHC DAY 5
POSITION...HAVE DECIDED TO SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASING NE TO E WINDS
FRI...BECOMING WINDY SAT.
&&
.MARINE...WILL SPLIT MARINE FORECAST INTO 4 SEPARATE ZONES AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND T.S. GASTON FORECAST TO PRODUCE CAUTION
CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE NORTH LEG TONIGHT. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IF GASTON STRENGTHENS MORE THAN EXPECTED.
SEAS WILL BE SUPPRESSED NEAR SHORE THROUGH SUN DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
FLOW WHICH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN ACROSS SOUTH FL MON AND LIFTS NORTH TO
CENTRAL FL TUE AND WED...RELAXING THE WIND FIELD AND ALLOWING THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP EACH AFTN. WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL
THE FIRST EFFECTS OF HURRICANE FRANCES THU (DEPENDING ON HER TRACK
AND SPEED) IN THE FORM OF INCREASING EASTERLY SWELL AND A NE WIND
DIRECTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 94 74 90 / 30 30 20 40
MCO 75 91 75 90 / 30 30 20 40
MLB 73 93 75 90 / 30 30 20 40
VRB 73 94 74 91 / 30 30 20 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HIRSCH
LONG TERM....KELLY