Floydbuster's 5th Frances forecast...

[Anonymous]

Hurricane Frances Forecast # 5
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
Friday August 27, 2004 5pm
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO

Hurricane Frances is now a major hurricane. The third major hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It is a category 3 hurricane now with winds of 115 mph. I see no reason why we will not see more intensification throughout the forecast period.

The movement has slowed at it moves west-northwest and slightly northwest. Pretty much on track of the NHC. I am pretty much in agreement, but a little farther west. I feel this is a GRAVE threat to South Florida.

As for intensity, continued steady stregthening throughout the forecast period. Some possible rapid intensification can make my forecast crap, but I will go with steady strengthening. Frances may become a category 5 in the five to six day timeframes...or sooner.

NOTE: THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

12 HRS-- 16.5N-- 52.0W-- 105 kt
24 HRS-- 18.0N-- 55.8W-- 110 kt
36 HRS-- 20.0N-- 59.2W-- 115 kt
48 HRS-- 21.2N-- 62.0W-- 120kt
72 HRS-- 22.0N-- 66.3W-- 125 kt
96 HRS-- 22.8N-- 70.0W-- 130 kt
120 HRS- 23.6N-- 73.8W-- 135 kt

[lilbump3000]

You may be right floydbuster. My local met on channel 9 will be on in 15mins, and he is going to show us to possible tracks that frances can do. He also said when he show us one of them we might not like for here in louisiana.

[B-Bear]

Question: Why the jog to the NW at the very end of that long range track? What influenced you to throw that in there?

[lilbump3000]

But right now i say florida has the highest chances of getting a hit by this system.

[canegrl04]

If Frances were to scoot into the GOM, she could be a strong cat 5,as SST's are very warm there.Warmer than when Charley entered the Gulf

[B-Bear]

If Frances were to scoot into the GOM, she could be a strong cat 5,as SST's are very warm there.Warmer than when Charley entered the Gulf

Heck, she's about to get into 86 degree water in the VERY near future. She could be a cat 5 well before she gets to the Gulf.

[Anonymous]

Question: Why the jog to the NW at the very end of that long range track? What influenced you to throw that in there?

I expect a general west to west northewest track. If you move west-northwest with your finger on the track from where it is now to then.... it is a steady west-northwest track. I feel it will end up in the Gulf though.

[LowMug]

I especially like the very ominous...

NOTE: THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE

Oh my God...quit making me laugh so hard...all of us here know this is a DANGEROUS HURRICANE. Does your forecast go out to any media or emergency management offices? All this is ... is a variation of the NHC forecast which many of those on here were bashing when they forecasted the NW turn. The NHC are phenomenal and have many more resources than any of us do...all these individual (amateur) posts do is confuse those who are worried and not as knowledgable. I know there are Prof Mets on here and always enjoy their inputs.....

Sorry about that...

[B-Bear]

Question: Why the jog to the NW at the very end of that long range track? What influenced you to throw that in there?

I expect a general west to west northewest track. If you move west-northwest with your finger on the track from where it is now to then.... it is a steady west-northwest track. I feel it will end up in the Gulf though.

Thanks for the answer. By the way, my unscientific opinion is that it's going to get into the Gulf too, after going across southern FL.

[B-Bear]

I especially like the very ominous...

NOTE: THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE

Oh my God...quit making me laugh so hard...all of us here know this is a DANGEROUS HURRICANE. Does your forecast go out to any media or emergency management offices? All this is ... is a variation of the NHC forecast which many of those on here were bashing when they forecasted the NW turn. The NHC are phenomenal and have many more resources than any of us do...all these individual (amateur) posts do is confuse those who are worried and not as knowledgable. I know there are Prof Mets on here and always enjoy their inputs.....

Sorry about that...

Actually, I think NHC has the storm getting a little further north and then curving more west. And I think it's admirable when people take the time to prepare such forecasts, whether they are professional mets or not. It shows to me that they care enough to invest some time into their predictions, rather than just babbling at the mouth like some.

[jlauderdal]

You may be right floydbuster. My local met on channel 9 will be on in 15mins, and he is going to show us to possible tracks that frances can do. He also said when he show us one of them we might not like for here in louisiana.

what were the possible tracks because with a ridge in place like this one i see only one track and so do all the models.

thanks

[lilbump3000]

Well he just got off and the first is that there might be a weakness off the east coast and the system goes up into or near the SC, NC coast. The second is that there isnt a weakness and the system continues to head WNW across south flordia than into the gulf. He said if it was to come to new orleans it will be around or labor day.

[Anonymous]

Hey... for those who don't like forecasts of mine.....!!!!!

[Pebbles]

Hey Floydbuster I appriciate ya...and know discussion is cool with you..just ignore people who are RUDE instead of adding constructive comments. *hugs Floyd* and yes...It IS a dangerous hurricane..keep up the good work hun!

[cape_escape]

Hey... for those who don't like forecasts of mine.....!!!!!

I like your posts Flydbuster!

[Anonymous]

Thank you.

[adelphi_sky]

Maybe I need to throw in a few forecasts so I can get in good with the ladies like Floyd.