8.3S1 126.8E7, NEAR THE COAST OF EAST TIMOR

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ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/301800Z/311800ZMAR2003//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1S9
127.1E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3S1 126.8E7, NEAR THE COAST OF EAST
TIMOR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LLCC IS
EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND TRACKING TOWARD IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY: LT SMITH, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/HEATH/SHERRY//