Channel 9 on the Space Coast...

[chris_fit]

Met just compared Frances to "perhaps an Andrew" and the Bermuda High Shifting to the west.

Said to monitor very closely.

[Guest]

Met just compared Frances to "perhaps an Andrew" and the Bermuda High Shifting to the west.

Said to monitor very closely.

that is completely ludicris. whichever forecaster that is should be fired.

[chadtm80]

uhh.. Whats Ludicris? Its in the same position Andrew was.. And currently on the same heading.. So again.. Whats Ludicris?

[southerngale]

BrianI, that's similiar to what AFM just said in another thread. I wouldn't call it ludicrous.

[paulvogel]

better to be wrong and prepared than right and asleep.

They were asleep in punta gorda, and should have been prepared

[stormie_skies]

For the record:

ludicrous = laughably absurd

Ludicris = popular rapper


LOL.....its hilarious that that has become so mainstream that people confuse the spellings .... you wouldnt happen to have a pop-listening child, would you, Chad? Just curious.....

[Guest]

ludicrous, assinine, absurd, WRONG.

"Met just compared Frances to "perhaps an Andrew" and the Bermuda High Shifting to the west.

Said to monitor very closely."

That's nothing to play with. Comparing this storm to andrew is called playing it up for Television hype and ratings. excuse me, but give this situation more time before you get the public at an extreme guard for a cat5 lashing. I really, really hate that.

[Air Force Met]

Met just compared Frances to "perhaps an Andrew" and the Bermuda High Shifting to the west.

Said to monitor very closely.

that is completely ludicris. whichever forecaster that is should be fired.

Kinda easy to say that when you are all the way in Mass.

Please give a meteorological explaination as to WHY this is "ludicris" (sic). Why do you say that or are you just saying it because you feel that way but have no meteorological reasoning.

[Guest]

Yeah, kinda.

I hate answering questions with questions, but please give me some insight on this meteorologist alerting people on another possible andrew 8 to 10 days out. I am not at all saying this storm would not work out in this way...But where is his information coming from? I have yet to see any kind of consensus in any data that would indicate an Andrew scenerio.

My reasoning is that, if you look at MODEL SUITES from the past several days, GFs and Canadian. a strike north of FLorida, along the east CONUS, is just as likely as the 'andrew' scenerio. Yes there are runs that take this storm into florida and the gulf, there are also runs that take this storm out to sea safely, and there are runs that hammer SC to New england. It's 200 hours + out ANY impact on the US which is far and away too early to be on any media outlet warning of a storm that destroyed so many peoples lives. There is no model that I have seen or that is available that can *accurately* predict the exactly dynamics of features coming that far in advance.

I dont know, that is just my opinion. And yes, I do have reasoning, because I too have studied enough to know a bit about weather. As I'm sure many others here have.

[Guest]

I do not see where my location has anything to do with the thread...I am not trying to be fussy here but honestly, explain that one

[Windsong]

Tom Terry is the Meterologist in question. He is well respected and has a great track record. BTW, he also called Charley as a GulF/FL hit 10 days out, and was instrumental in getting the word out just before landfall.
Also note, that he does not do alarmist type forecasting.

He has a track record here that says LISTEN. That's good enough for me....

Denise

[MWatkins]

For the record:

ludicrous = laughably absurd

Ludicris = popular rapper


LOL.....its hilarious that that has become so mainstream that people confuse the spellings .... you wouldnt happen to have a pop-listening child, would you, Chad? Just curious.....

I think that was his point with the capitalization and all. Or is it capitolization? Or capitalisim?

Anyway...wanted to add another to the list:

Ludicrisp = Mike Tysonism for something he finds illogical.

MW

[Guest]

tap tap tap.

[Doc Seminole]

[img]http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/arch/cases/920824/sat/gifs/vapor/92082303.gif[/img] (alt+p)

http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/arch/cases/920824/sat/gifs/vapor/92082303.gif


Ok, looks are deceiving, but the set up is somewhat the same, and it's been the pattern all summer.

Of course there is Job Chapter 37. He scatters His bright clouds. And they swirl about being turned by His guidance that they may do whatever He commands them on the face of the whole earth ....... which pretty much discounts alot of forecasting.

Doc Seminole

[Guest]

I do agree, there are similarities. I dont agree with florida landfall. We will see.

[Weatherboy1]

In my mind, Frances could resemble one of four storms in term of rough track, intensity, etc...

1) Andrew (1992) -- I know you don't want to be bombarded by hype. But looking at the set-up, current position, potential steerring influences, and potential strength, it IS possible we'll see an Andrew-type path. And as far as intensity, while it's unlikely we'll see a Cat. 5, Frances could turn out to be a powerful cane.

2) Fran (1996), Isabel (2003), Hugo (1989) -- With that low pressure area hanging around off the SE coast, it could create a weakness in the western end of the Bemuda high/ridge. Like a similar lingering low did with Isabel, this would tend to steer Frances toward the NC area. Alternatively, Frances could hook on a Fran- or Hugo-like path (i.e. start turning, but not to the N and NE ... and further S than the northern Outer Banks)

3) Fabian (2003) -- If the ridge that will eventually steer this thing more westerly gets eroded earlier than expected, this thing could start recurving far enough away from the US coast that it will just threaten Bermuda (or maybe even miss it to the east)

4) assorted other storms, including those that impacted New England. We haven't seen the kind of pattern these last few years that leads to New England strikes, a la Gloria. But it can't entirely be ruled out.

If I had to pick one of these as most likely -- at this very early stage in the game -- I'd pick scenario #2 ... and Isabel-type storm. But I'm really just throwing darts at the board this far out.

[cape_escape]

better to be wrong and prepared than right and asleep.

They were asleep in punta gorda, and should have been prepared

I agree! I'd rather be a live chicken than a brave deadman anyday!

[Guest]

better to be wrong and prepared than right and asleep.

They were asleep in punta gorda, and should have been prepared

And who is to blame for this?