Lets talk worse case scenario

[jlauderdal]

I have been saying all along that this will likely NOT be a florida cane, although I am not discounting that option - I really think that a ridge is going to build in the atlantic forcing this storm into the mid atlantic or carolinas, then up and out near cape cod. For some reason I do not believe the GFs are doing very well with upper level features in high latitutdes....

well if the ridge builds in than it has a better chance of hitting florida than a cape od scenario..a cape cod scenario would require weakness in the ridge you are talking about that you think is building in

[Guest]

I am talking about a ridge building from central canada, off towards newfoundland! Not moving south into the Mid atlantic, but more easterly into the maritimes. the newfoundland wheel is a dangerous element in the equation.

During this type of scenerio, which not only the GFs ensembles but also the canadian are starting to come together with, the storm would NOT be forced due west or southwest like some ensembles were pointing at in previous days, with a building ridge which moves SOUTH to the southeast states. the storm would follow a weakness into the carolinas or up the coast. This is very very important and 1954, if you know your history or do a bit of reserach, is a great example. If you look at the maps from mets back during carol, edna, hazel - they look eerily similar to these.

Again just my opinion..but thats my best speculation and anyone can do this to some degree.

[Guest]

What is your take jlauderdal? and anyone else...I really do want to get some long-range opinions and stack them up and get others insight. I always learn something and thats what matters, no matter the skill or experience

[alicia-w]

The "what ifs" give us a perfect opportunity to go over our supply situation, our escape routes, etc. My husband, son, and I even started driving potential routes on the weekend, taking into account that some roads may not be accessible and some may be closed. We've decided to leave two or three days ahead of landfall. It's a small price to pay for not having to sit in hours and hours of traffic and having to settle for some fleabag motel!

[Guest]

better safe than sorry

[Guest]

here is what this storm is
a dash of andrew
a pinch of isabel
and a whole lot of floyd.

[BUD]

here is what this storm is
a dash of andrew
a pinch of isabel
and a whole lot of floyd.

maybe not Floyd,but HUGO

[vbhoutex]

The "what ifs" give us a perfect opportunity to go over our supply situation, our escape routes, etc. My husband, son, and I even started driving potential routes on the weekend, taking into account that some roads may not be accessible and some may be closed. We've decided to leave two or three days ahead of landfall. It's a small price to pay for not having to sit in hours and hours of traffic and having to settle for some fleabag motel!

Amen to that Alicia!!!! As you know my Mom lives a couple miles from you and she does rely on me somewhat to keep her posted on what storms are doing. I do know that in a potential landfalling situation with a major I will be advising her to head to Montgomery to her friends house AT LEAST two days ahead of projected landfall if it is near your area. IT IS ALWAYS BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY IMO!!!

Yours is GREAT ADVICE for all to follow!!

I've expressed my opinion on possible scenarios(basic) in my update thread in response to Roxy's question. It is WAY TOO EARLY to even attempt to pinpoint the track. Anything this far out is purely speculation.

[Aimless]

If Charley taught me nothing else.... it taught me to watch these things from the moment they are identified and begin then to make my personal plans for "what if"... I only experienced 60 mph winds with a few killer gusts that took out my 50 ' oak tree - among others... it was exciting and terrifying... I'm leavin' next time... currently making route plans and checking hotel availability & prices in a number of directions.. three days out.. reservations will be made... house boarded and bye bye see ya in a few days ...

[Guest]

People need to understand that the Florida peninsula will begin to see more hurricanes make landfall in the years to come.Whether this makes it here remains to be seen but Florida is no stranger to hurricanes or major hurricanes @ that.So if you live in Florida I would get use to the fact that there are stormy times ahead.

[cajungal]

Worst case scenario would be if it strenghted to a 4 or 5, hit the Miami area. Then, went through the penisula into the gulf, not weaken much, then hit the New Orleans area.

I am just saying that would be the worst case as an example. But, the odds of that happening are extremely low. I don't want any storm coming near Florida. I feel for those poor people.

[Weatherboy1]

I have been saying all along that this will likely NOT be a florida cane, although I am not discounting that option - I really think that a ridge is going to build in the atlantic forcing this storm into the mid atlantic or carolinas, then up and out near cape cod. For some reason I do not believe the GFs are doing very well with upper level features in high latitutdes....

I live in Southeast FL, so obviously, I'm watching Frances. But I believe as you do that this will likely be a problem further N up the coast (or maybe not at all for the EC -- it could hook N eventually between Bermuda and NC). My thought is it gets N of the NE Leewards, is steered back to the WNW or W then, but 2 or 3 days later, gets hooked back to the NW and N by a second trough. Think of Isabel last year or Floyd in 1999. The east coast ridges/Bermuda highs just haven't been that strong this season ... they've been transient (setting up for a few days, then getting kicked back out by new troughts). So far, I see no reason for things to be different here, as you can clearly see an advancing trough in water vapor imagery over the Midwest U.S. anchored by an ULL in the Ohio Valley. My guess is that this trough will eventually catch Frances and hook her to the N. But it is way too early to say where or IF this will impact the US. By late Sunday, I think we'll have a much better idea on that front.

[caneman]

People need to understand that the Florida peninsula will begin to see more hurricanes make landfall in the years to come.Whether this makes it here remains to be seen but Florida is no stranger to hurricanes or major hurricanes @ that.So if you live in Florida I would get use to the fact that there are stormy times ahead.

Same thing I been preaching. Florida may be back in the cycle of multiple hits for multiple years. There is a reaon why Florida has been hit more than any other state. People think just because there has been a lull in amount of systems for the past 10+ years in Florida that we somehow are a shield. It's more likely it is because the majority of people in FLorida and I'll include myself don't know anything about Florida Cane history say pre-1980.

[Tommedic]

Many interesting posts so far. Much emotion. I would like to add the following.

Due to the forecated rapid development this storm may have, I would like to suggest the following.

Each one here should ensure that friends, relatives, and even people you just remember from times past are prepared if they live along the S.E. coast, in the Bahamas, and especially in the Islands.

History has shown that many storms pass thru this area as intense storms and then diminish in intensity due to changing conditions. However, many don't. We must try to follow a policy I have lived my life with: PREPARE FOR THE WORST WE CAN FORESEE, THEN PREPARE FOR MORE, BUT ALWAYS HOPE AND PRAY FOR THE BEST"

Those that know me, know I am no wishcaster. For years I have relied on historical data, because I did not have access to models and other data. I do not have a good feeling, for lack of a better term, about Frances. I hope I am wrong. I would strongly suggest that people in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and especially North Carolina keep watch on this one. I would suggets that we all kee and eye on this storm and the 1 week CONUS forecsast to look for any front that could turn this system as it gets near the coast. Ultimately, I believe, that will determine the furture of Frances UNLESS she become a CAT 4 or CAT 5 at which time she could create her own environment.

I am just an amateur. These comments should NEVER be taken as any official forecast. Thank you.

[Patrick99]

People need to understand that the Florida peninsula will begin to see more hurricanes make landfall in the years to come.Whether this makes it here remains to be seen but Florida is no stranger to hurricanes or major hurricanes @ that.So if you live in Florida I would get use to the fact that there are stormy times ahead.

Same thing I been preaching. Florida may be back in the cycle of multiple hits for multiple years. There is a reaon why Florida has been hit more than any other state. People think just because there has been a lull in amount of systems for the past 10+ years in Florida that we somehow are a shield. It's more likely it is because the majority of people in FLorida and I'll include myself don't know anything about Florida Cane history say pre-1980.

Yeah - to most people in this state, "the Gulfstream protects us from hurricanes!" hahahaaha all it takes is to go through all the historical tracks, the evidence is there. Florida being hit by major hurricanes in August, September, and October is not at all a freak occurrence. I too think the "bad old days" have returned in some capacity. In many of those years, Florida was hit by multiple storms in the same year.

[Guest]

Many interesting posts so far. Much emotion. I would like to add the following.

Due to the forecated rapid development this storm may have, I would like to suggest the following.

Each one here should ensure that friends, relatives, and even people you just remember from times past are prepared if they live along the S.E. coast, in the Bahamas, and especially in the Islands.

History has shown that many storms pass thru this area as intense storms and then diminish in intensity due to changing conditions. However, many don't. We must try to follow a policy I have lived my life with: PREPARE FOR THE WORST WE CAN FORESEE, THEN PREPARE FOR MORE, BUT ALWAYS HOPE AND PRAY FOR THE BEST"

Those that know me, know I am no wishcaster. For years I have relied on historical data, because I did not have access to models and other data. I do not have a good feeling, for lack of a better term, about Frances. I hope I am wrong. I would strongly suggest that people in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and especially North Carolina keep watch on this one. I would suggets that we all kee and eye on this storm and the 1 week CONUS forecsast to look for any front that could turn this system as it gets near the coast. Ultimately, I believe, that will determine the furture of Frances UNLESS she become a CAT 4 or CAT 5 at which time she could create her own environment.

I am just an amateur. These comments should NEVER be taken as any official forecast. Thank you.

I agree with at least the first part of this. no matter what, someone is going to be affected by this system in some way. sometimes it bothers me when people actually hope a catagory 4 hurricane their way. sure it sounds exciting but usually it is the 16 year old with no possessions of their own and life inexperience. i've only ridden out a couple 3 cane's myself and they were no majors although one was a strong 2. And I really do not WISH this storm or any storm in my direction or anyones. But I take things one day at a time and if it comes, well that is what is going to happen.

[ColdFront77]

.....and keep in mind, if not find out now.....

The Kennedy Space Center was build on Cape Canaveral because of the low percentage of hurricane/tropical storm landfalls
between Daytona Beach and Vero Beach, Florida compared to the entire U.S. coastline (from Eastport, Maine to Brownsville, Texas).