Where is all of the ridging in the Atlantic?

[hurricanetrack]

I was just looking at the latest runs of the GFS- that's all I've had time to look at right now- and there appears to be little 500 mb ridging across the Atlantic for the next two weeks. It's like it's not even there- so anything coming west from the COA will just drift harmless out in to the North Atlantic.

Why is this the case or is the GFS simply wrong?

Input from the pros greatly appreciated.

[Tip]

I mentioned this earlier today in a post "Fading Atlantic Ridge" The 12z run of the GFS has not changed from this trend.

[MWatkins]

I mentioned this earlier today in a post "Fading Atlantic Ridge" The 12z run of the GFS has not changed from this trend.

Although the models do depict a central Atlantic trough in the means in 5 days time (which by the way is not all that unusual) in the central Atlantic...they appear to be slow with the forward motion of the system between the Cape Verdes and Africa. This system has a HUGE envelope...and remains a strong candidate for development.

If it develops and moves just a little faster than the globals suggest...then it scoot past the central Atlantic trough and get to the other side.

By day 5 it has the system at 40W...which is 20 degrees of movement in 5 days...or 4 degrees per day.

This ends up reducing to 1 degree every 6 hours...for an even forward speed of 10 knots.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif

As the steering pattern amplifies the model system starts to get drawn up to the trough digging in at the same longitude...with several suprious looking lows breaking out all around the atlantic by day 7:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168m.gif

Of course the key to all of this is the large mid-lat system over eastern Canada...it it comes SE and attacks the Atlantic ridge then it really wont matter how far west the model storm gets...the whole darn ridge will break down.

However...if the ridge holds some and the system ends up flipping instead of digging...then the model system will have some time to come west as the UKMET and 00Z Canadian suggest...although the most UKMET guidance also seems too far east with development and too slow as well.

Going to be an interesting couple of days if anything at all gets going with the CV wave. Although convection is on the decrease the envelope looks moist and healthy...but if you are wanting to see this system make it across...as goes the Canadian system so goes the wave...I think.

MW