Sorry folks but this is not going away...

[Stephanie]

It is hard to tell sometimes x-y-no.

[opera ghost]

As for the why... It was because that's the way it looked It *looks* like it's heading more north than it is. I'm cool with that.

Amature Alert!

[Nimbus]

That little low level center that outran the convection is bursting near 14.9 N 74 W. That is a pretty straight track from the position where it was at 15 GMT yesterday 11.9 N 62.0 W..

[Air Force Met]

If the vortmax was moving away from the convection at 20 kts...and the convection itself was moving at 15 kts...there would be a good chance of this regenerating once the vortmax got a good distance away form the system and thus allowed another to form. However, this thing is moving really fast. Now...the whole system is not moving at 32...just the vortmax. That happens a lot. It's easier to move a little vortmax (with very little mass) at 32 mph than it is a big blob of convection. The convective system (the blob) is also moving pretty fast. Chances are that sometime tonight or tomorrow, another vortmax will be spit out and also move west really fast.

Bottom line on Earl is that it has to slow down in the next 24 hours to have any chance whatsoever. But, there is a 500 mb high sitting in the eastern GOM until the 72 hour point, at which time it moves east and the steering flow switches from the east to the se. So...in order for earl to avoid central america and reform...and then become a threat...it has to slow down to about 10 knots before tomorrow morning. Given that it will still be east of the high (and thus not able to slow down)...something weird will have to happen in order for this to happen.

Now...here is a possible scenerio...not saying it is going to happen...but it can and has happened before: The wave (earl) could split, with a piece of the energy moving west into the pacific...and a piece breaking off and heading NW in the Bay of Campache. By this time the steering flow comes from the south and a trough approaches from the NW.

Not saying that scenerio is possible...but I think it is the only chance earl has. It has happened before (that a wave splits and a piece of the energy moves NW and gets trapped in the BOC)...and it might happen again. Time will tell.

[Nimbus]

I just did a quick back of the envelope for a 30 hour period and calculated that the vort max would have had to be averaging 36 mph to reach this postion! I'm guessing this little LLC feature is just a recent formation within the convection and that it may be slowing down as it bursts.