REGARDING EARL...LATEST NAVY NOGAPS MODEL PAINTS A DISTURBING
SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE LONG RANGE GFS LOSES THE FEATURE
IN CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A PIECEMEAL VORTICITY FEATURE MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RECURVING HARD RIGHT NEXT WEEKEND. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE VERY LITTLE SPREAD AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE WEEK. THERE
IS NOT MUCH IN THE CONVENTIONAL SYNOPTIC MODELS TO SUGGEST ANY
INHIBITION OF DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKING OF EARL DURING THE WEEK. STAY
TUNED!
MEANWHILE...BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING TONIGHT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
DEWPOINT GRADIENT WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE GULF DOWN TO 25N AND UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE GULF UP TO 25N. MODELS INDICATE NO FEATURE OF
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE SHORT-TERM BUT PAST SYSTEMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
LIKE FASHION.