thoughts and reflections about Charley

[kevin]

Hello everyone, this is a personal thread and not so much an 'analysis'.

I started following Charley back on Tuesday, and grew concerned wednesday. By thursday I was following every bit of information I could find on this system. These days have been ones of little sleep, working from 5 to 5, and then staying up till 2. Last night was my first good night's sleep, and it was not a happy one.

I don't know what to say, last night I was deeply troubled by the whole thing, on a psychological as well as intellectual way. This morning there was news of bodies being stacked awaiting transport, and I haven't checked it further. The bottom line is, I thought this storm would go to Tampa and from there pass over Jacksonville. Many storms have I wishcasted, but this one I tried even more than usual to make an analysis.

Right now I feel embarassed. The track of Charley was the paramount thing, and I got it wrong by over 70 miles. Other people were right about the track, and I criticized their rigor. To those, I am sorry. And in a way I am sorry to SW Florida.

Just some thoughts, take them as you will.

Kevin

[Swimdude]

Oh well, dont blame yourself! Not everyone truly knows what a hurricane can do.

[Skywatch_NC]

My prayers and thoughts are w/ those who lost loved ones from Charley.


Just heard on my local news station WRAL-TV5 that the death toll could exceed 100 in FL!!

Eric

[OtherHD]

The sinking feeling I got when I first got the news that Charley had reached Cat 4 was something I had not experienced in about 35 months. And the pressure continued to drop after that. Like you kevin, I'm just physically and emotionally drained from all that's happened in the last 2-3 days.

[Steve Cosby]

Just heard on my local news station WRAL-TV5 that the death toll could exceed 100 in FL!!

100 people who lost their lives needlessly. All they needed to do was pay attention and heed the warnings.

I'm reading the people trying to assign blame. Certainly, I would have to agree that the news media really didn't help things. BUT, from day one my parents taught me that I am ultimately responsible for myself.

Maybe, though, what is needed is some way to get the feed from NHC direct to the people. Here in the midwest where tornados are common, the local cable provider has provided a hook to the police/EMS/fire where they can take over the TV feed and broadcast needed information. During the time they are broadcasting, every channel is on this emergency feed. My point is that maybe something like this will remove the talking head/analysts and let the people that know tell the whole truth and nothing but the truth with no "analysis".

[kevin]

I would be in favor of such a thing Steve. While it would be extremely unpopular I think among weather enthusiasts, there should perhaps be two domains. Those who study and discuss meteorology (scientific community, enthusiasts etc) and those who advise people (the NHC, the voice piece of the community). When storms are at a distance, the talking heads can talk for viewing entertainment, but when the danger is at our shores, we need a unified position. Otherwise blame can easily be difused.

[HURAKAN]

I think no one could have predicted Charley to in a matter of hours go from 105 to 145, neither to change its track, because if it had gone through the same track it was when it left Cuba's north coast, and when it passed west of Key West, or over Dry Tortugas, Charley would have made landfall very near the Tampa Bay area. Charley is just an example that no one will play with Mother Nature, and that Mother Nature can create beautiful things but because she created she has the power to destroy it. Also, Charley is an example that even in the 21st Century, no one has the power to predict what this monsters will do, how big they will intensify, or how they will move. The NHC did a great job since they correctly predicted the storm passing over Western Cuba, and then heading toward the Western Florida Coast, now they fail to correctly predict the exactly point where Charley made landfall but as I say before, no one reads Mother Nature mind.

Sandy Delgado

[Steve Cosby]

I think no one could have predicted Charley to in a matter of hours go from 105 to 145, neither to change its track, because if it had gone through the same track it was when it left Cuba's north coast, and when it passed west of Key West, or over Dry Tortugas, Charley would have made landfall very near the Tampa Bay area. Charley is just an example that no one will play with Mother Nature, and that Mother Nature can create beautiful things but because she created she has the power to destroy it. Also, Charley is an example that even in the 21st Century, no one has the power to predict what this monsters will do, how big they will intensify, or how they will move. The NHC did a great job since they correctly predicted the storm passing over Western Cuba, and then heading toward the Western Florida Coast, now they fail to correctly predict the exactly point where Charley made landfall but as I say before, no one reads Mother Nature mind.

Sandy Delgado

That "error" was a matter of one or two degrees on the heading wheel, was it not? Hardly an error in the first place.

But, I did read the post of a well-known heavily muscled met who made mention of the "friction" of the hurricane against the coast causing the 'cane to turn more to the east simply by rubbing up against it. I don't remember seeing that thought in the any of the NHC discussions. That might be the one thing that needs to be further examined and may readily account for the 1-2 degree change in heading.

Oh, and on the intensity thing, I seem to recall that just as soon as the recon reported those extreme winds at altitude, an "update" was put out by NHC immediately.