11 PM Advisory on TD#5 Watches for some islands tommorow

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 2


Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 13, 2004



...Depression moving rapidly westward toward the Windward Islands...
Watches may be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles by
Saturday morning. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and the eastern
Caribbean Sea should closely monitor this system over the next few
days.

At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression Five was
located near latitude 9.4 north...longitude 48.3 west or about 895
miles...1440 km...east-southeast of the Windward Islands.

The depression is moving toward the west near 21 mph
...33 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression has the potential to become a tropical storm
over the next day or so.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Repeating the 11 PM AST position... 9.4 N... 48.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am AST.

Forecaster Franklin

[goodlife]

[cycloneye]

Discussion.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 140235
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. A
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z...AS WELL AS DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...SUGGEST
THAT THE WINDS ARE PERHAPS A LITTLE LOWER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED.
NEVERTHELESS...THE SYSTEM HAS A GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND...OTHER
THAN THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION...ALL FACTORS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING. BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE BRING THE
DEPRESSION TO ABOUT 90 KT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. I HAVE ELECTED
TO GO A LITTLE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE BASED ON THE POOR SATELLITE AND
QUIKSCAT PRESENTATION AND THE RAPID INITIAL MOTION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18. THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION IS THEREFORE
INDICATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LARGELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL.

WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
EARLY SATURDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 9.4N 48.3W 25 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 10.0N 51.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 11.0N 54.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 12.1N 58.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 13.2N 61.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 15.0N 67.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 17.0N 73.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 20.0N 78.5W 80 KT