Models show now neutral ENSO during the hurricane season

[cycloneye]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

This is the update from all the models and this update shows that el nino wont be any factor during the hurricane season.

But what we have to watch is if weak la nina develops later on by august but let's wait for more data to see if that will come.

[Amanzi]

Thanks Luis. If there is a weak La nina does it make a big difference in comparison to years that are neutral?

[cycloneye]

No Amanzi because in neutral years other factors came and did not allow for the seasons to be very active so this ENSO factor yes is an important one but it is not the only guidence to see if a season will be active or not but this factor alone is favorable but very soon we will see what factors apart from ENSO will be favorable or not and at that time we will know with certainty what kind of season it will be.

But looking at the other factors there is a mix bag now some are favorable for an active season and others not but Amanzi keep checking here because this is the place to be because you will get plenty of information.

[Anonymous]

If there is a weak La nina does it make a big difference in comparison to years that are neutral?

Depends on how the other factors are set up. However, let's say we have two years where every factor is in the exact same state, except one is neutral and the other is weak La Nina. Now the year with a weak La Nina will be quite a bit more active than the year with neutral, especially off the coast of Africa and in the deep Atlantic.

[Amanzi]

THANKS for the replies guys. I get the picture now.

I know Luis, I will learn a lot from you and others this season.

Please keep us updated.

[cycloneye]

YW Bronwyn

[Anonymous]

Just wanted to note that this isn't the greatest time of the year to use long range ENSO models. They have a hard time forecasting that far in advance during this time of the year.

[Kevin_Wx]

Have you noticed how the BOM and CLIPER models don't have La Nina on the 8 month progs. However, the last 2 runs showed a La Nina in 8 months. I'm basically trying to say this...the models could be *possibly* missing something important. There is a slight possibility we could see a strong La Nina by fall. But for now, it is most reasonable to expect neutral to borderline La Nina conditions.

[Anonymous]

I'm basically trying to say this...the models could be *possibly* missing something important.

Exactly....looks like the small warming fluctuation that occured a couple weeks ago may have been a problem too.