Many on here have criticized what the NHC has been forecasting with Charlie, but for the most part they have done a great job. It is important to ignore the wobbles and follow the path over time. Charley, so far is behaving quite well, and the trough coming down from the north and the western edge of the ridge seem to be right where they are suppose to be.
One other note, the most reliable models have remained fairly consistent, and as someone else pointed out on the forum, 36-48 hours out, the NHC has done an extremely good job the past few years. Steering currents are steady and they have a pretty good handle on it.
I do however, offer no guarantees
