FXUS62 KTBW 110643
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
242 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
...THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURS)...AND THIS IS THE TIME TO GET THE
HURRICANE KIT READY. THE COMBINATION OF EXISTING SUBSIDENCE AND
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING CHARLEY WILL
CONTINUE THE BENIGN WEATHER FOR MOST. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE LEVY
COUNTY...WHERE SOME AFFECT FROM UNIMPRESSIVE T.S. BONNIE MAY
SLIGHTLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...AS WELL AS A BRIEF UPTICK
IN SSW FLOW ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER HOT AGAIN TODAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS. FOR THURSDAY...GFS
APPEARS TO BE TOO BOLD WITH INITIAL SPOKE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CUTTING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE...SO HAVE DROPPED CHANCES/COVERAGE
BACK A NOTCH.
.MID TERM (THURS NIGHT-FRI)...CHARLEY SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SUFFICIENT
SLOWING. IT SHOULD DECELERATE A LITTLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
IT APPROACHES THE EDGE OF THE BUILDING CARIBBEAN/ANTILLES RIDGE...
BUT TIMING OF NEXT TROUGH LOOKS PERFECT TO QUICKLY PICK IT UP AND
BEGIN THE RECURVE. LATEST GFS AND GFDL ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL IN
TIMING...6 TO PERHAPS 12H FASTER THAN LATEST ADVISORY...AND HAVE
BEGUN TO TWEAK IN THIS DIRECTION...WITH ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT BEFORE 6
AM PENDING NEXT COORDINATION CALL. IN ANY CASE...ALL MODELS AND
OFFICIAL FCST TRACK CHARLEY INTO THE SUNCOAST ON FRIDAY.
THOUGH A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL...THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM CHARLEY
WOULD BE WIND AND SURGE (S OF LANDFALL) GIVEN RAPID MOTION AND
SMALL-ISH SIZE. THOUGH RAINS WON'T LAST LONG...THEY WILL POUND AND
GIVEN STILL SWOLLEN RIVERS IN SOME AREAS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER FLOOD
WATCHES SOMETIME BETWEEN THURS NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.
WILL FOCUS ON THIS IN HAZ WX OUTLOOK..THINK OF THIS PRODUCT AS A
"PRE-WATCH".
ZONES/MARINE WILL REMAIN GENERIC FOR NOW...THOUGH PUBLISHED GRIDS
ARE MORE OMINOUS.
.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT - TUE)...MUCH DEPENDS UPON THE SPEED AND
TRACK OF TROPICAL SYSTEM CHARLIE BUT EXPECT SURFACE TROUGHINESS
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF HIGHER MOISTURE TO RESIDE ACROSS THE CWA
SAT AND THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE ON SUN AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
IN OVER FL FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH MORE EASTERLY FLOW. FOR NOW...
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS IN SAT AND THEN TAPER DOWN
SUN INTO MON TO NEAR OR JUST UNDER CLIMO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REQUIRE AT LEAST SCA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...AGAIN DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK/SPEED OF CHARLEY. RESIDUAL FLOODING MAY BE A PROBLEM
INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MINS AND JUST UNDER FOR MAXES.
&&
.MARINE...THROUGH THURS...WITH BONNIE BACKING DOWN...SO HAVE WE
ACROSS THE NW LEG. IF BONNIE MAKES A COMEBACK (UNLIKELY) WE'LL BEEF
UP THIS AREA AS TS WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO THE EDGE OF OUR WATERS INTO
THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LIGHT S WINDS PICKING UP A LITTLE
THURSDAY AS GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH AND GENERALLY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF INCREASES.
THURS NIGHT/FRI...ALL EYES ON CHARLEY. FOR GRIDS...HAVE PUMPED SEAS
ABOVE 12 FEET ON FRIDAY (BASED ON INPUT FROM NHC WINDS). CURRENT
SPEEDY TRACK WOULD SPIN CONDS DOWN FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT...AND
WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE TWEAKS TO TEXT PER NHC COORDINATION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. HOPEFULLY NOBODY IS PLANNING TO BURN
ON FRIDAY.&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 090 078 090 077 / 20 20 50 40
FMY 092 077 090 077 / 30 20 50 70
GIF 093 076 090 076 / 30 20 50 40
SRQ 090 077 089 077 / 20 20 50 50
BKV 092 073 090 075 / 30 20 40 20
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....RKR
Thoughts and comments welcomed.
Robert
