00z eta also trends to the right

[Vortex]

00z eta as one can see has shifted to the right. Also with the trough over the eastern GOM as depicted by the ETA this *could* pose serious concerns for the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula later followed by the East coast. The trend today of the short and medium range models has been a shift to the right given the fact not only will Bonnie break down the sub-tropical ridge but also enhance the latest trough along the east coast with loweing heights. Time will tell but a significant storm just south of central Cuba moving generally north Fri-Sat is appearing more and more likely.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[Vortex]

clearly indicated charley caught in the weakness and heading north towards Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Aquawind]

Well they did shift a tad to the right including more of S Fla as a possibility..

[Guest]

Only BAMM and ETA are taking this thing anywhere near S FL. Most reliable guidance suggests a gradual turn WNW to NW taking it over west tip of cuba into the eastern gulf. From there it will most likely take a track aligned with the 5h trough. Which would IMO favor a hit somewhere over the central FL panhandle. THis is pure speculation, but this is based off of the current mod runs...

[Anonymous]

This may be a long weekend!

[Dean4Storms]

Dang it I hope this thing turns away, Bonnie will be enough. I live 1 mile north of the beach and 400 yds south of Choctawatchee Bay, with Charley I could become beachfront!