Comments on the Atlantic (09.08.2004, 0215 UTC)

[DoctorHurricane2003]

M 09.08.2004 (MON AUG 09 2004)
0215 UTC (0915 PM CDT)


TROPICAL STORM BONNIE (02L)

Bonnie is an interesting storm that should be closely monitored. In the past 6 hours, she has better organized herself and currently, deep convection is firing over the center. SHORT TERM: At the 10 PM CDT advisory, expect Bonnie to have 50 MPH winds. LONG TERM: Bonnie's landfall location exclusively depends on how far west she travels before having a due north movement. I expect landfall to be somewhere between Mobile, AL and Panama City, FL....in general agreement with the NHC. However, I do not agree with the NHC's conservative strength estimates as they seem to have a bias towards that. At landfall, I expect Bonnie to have sustained winds in the range of 75 MPH (minimum) to 110 MPH (maximum)...I do not expect Bonnie to become a major hurricane due to time and energy available in the GOM...however, I am quick to note what Dr. Lyons said about smaller systems tending to rapidly intensify, and that is something to monitor to landfall.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03L

I did not expect such a rapid organization for this system. In the past 10 hours, 03L has developed a group of strong thunderstorms centered around the circulation. SHORT TERM: Expect 03L to be upgraded to Charley at the 10 PM CDT advisory with 40 MPH winds. LONG TERM: This storm's future will be very complex. In terms of direction, I am in general agreement with the NHC...and I see no reason to deviate from that. In terms of strength...once again I am in disagreement. As Dr. Lyons noted, in two days as it passes south of Hispanola, 03L will be in a much much more favorable enviroment. As it reaches this time period, I would expect 03L to have 70-85 MPH winds. As 03L continues WNW, it could develop significantly and should constantly be monitored. By 04-05 days, (Note the wide range due to uncertainties in shear, forward momentum, and other variables)...expect 03L to have maximum sustained winds somewhere between 110 MPH (minimum) and 165 MPH (maximum)....Do not be alarmed by the upper limit of this forecast, as it is not as likely. It would be more likely to be near 125 MPH unless it goes under a rapid intensification phase in the Western Caribbean. All interests in the Western Caribbean and along the Gulf Coast should CLOSELY monitor the progress of this system.

***END

[Dean4Storms]

Great analysis of both systems Doc. and I feel you may be right about both. The only hope I think we have for Bonnie weakening before landfall is if the shear disrupts her, but if she accelerates enough she may be able to lessen the impact of the shear, much like Opal. Being here in Destin, I'd be in your bullseye and I am concerned this PM.

[Brent]

Very alarming.

[Guest]

sorry doc I REALLY have to disagree with this wish cast of yours.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03L
. By 04-05 days, (Note the wide range due to uncertainties in shear, forward momentum, and other variables)...expect 03L to have maximum sustained winds somewhere between 110 MPH (minimum) and 165 MPH (maximum)....Do not be alarmed by the upper limit of this forecast, as it is not as likely