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chances are decent
evening discussion
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Derek Ortt
evening discussion
Last edited by Derek Ortt on Sun Aug 08, 2004 7:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Potential areas of development
Potential areas of development ... from 8:05 TWD
Tropical wave
Tropical wave located about 400 nm E of Barbados along 52w S
of 16n moving W 20-25 kt...with a 1012 mb low centered along the
axis near 10.5n. There has been a slight increase in
organization compared to yesterday with scattered moderate
convection from 10n-14n between 52w-57w... evidence of a broad
surface low and a continuation of low shear. Fast-moving, broad
systems such as this one tend to take their time organizing and
this one... so far... has been no exception. The wave will be
watched for signs of tropical development as it crosses the
Lesser Antilles tomorrow with 2-4" of rain possible. Outer
bands from the wave are affecting the islands S of Antigua at
this time and increasing rain/tstms is likely especially in the
Windward Islands overnight. For now the heaviest rain is
expected S of 17n until Tue when se winds bring deeper moisture
into northern Leeward Islands into Puerto Rico.
E Caribbean tropical wave along a mean axis of 69w moving W
15-20 kt. Wave shows up as weak twisting of the low clouds
with no significant convection.
Gulf of Mexico and W Atlantic...
as the ridiculously deep upper trof (4-5 standard deviations
deeper than average) for early Aug loses amplitude over the NW
atlc... a stationary front remains across parts of the W atlc
and N Gulf waters along 32n65w 29n72w 29n87w 27n96w. A 1013 mb
low is along the front near Boothville Louisiana and a second
weaker 1015 mb low is about 100 nm E of St Augustine.
Divergence between the flat trof to the N and ridging to the S
is leading to widely scattered tstms along the front N of 27n
with tstms concentrating near the weaker low in the atlc. Upper
level flow has become parallel to the front with ridging
southward along the base of the trof from the coast of Texas to
the Florida Straits ewd into the W atlc near 28n58w. Elsewhere
an inverted upper trof along the W Mexican coast S of 24n is
producing little weather but will likely bring an increased
chance of rain for Yucatan and the southern Gulf for early week.
Tropical wave
Tropical wave located about 400 nm E of Barbados along 52w S
of 16n moving W 20-25 kt...with a 1012 mb low centered along the
axis near 10.5n. There has been a slight increase in
organization compared to yesterday with scattered moderate
convection from 10n-14n between 52w-57w... evidence of a broad
surface low and a continuation of low shear. Fast-moving, broad
systems such as this one tend to take their time organizing and
this one... so far... has been no exception. The wave will be
watched for signs of tropical development as it crosses the
Lesser Antilles tomorrow with 2-4" of rain possible. Outer
bands from the wave are affecting the islands S of Antigua at
this time and increasing rain/tstms is likely especially in the
Windward Islands overnight. For now the heaviest rain is
expected S of 17n until Tue when se winds bring deeper moisture
into northern Leeward Islands into Puerto Rico.
E Caribbean tropical wave along a mean axis of 69w moving W
15-20 kt. Wave shows up as weak twisting of the low clouds
with no significant convection.
Gulf of Mexico and W Atlantic...
as the ridiculously deep upper trof (4-5 standard deviations
deeper than average) for early Aug loses amplitude over the NW
atlc... a stationary front remains across parts of the W atlc
and N Gulf waters along 32n65w 29n72w 29n87w 27n96w. A 1013 mb
low is along the front near Boothville Louisiana and a second
weaker 1015 mb low is about 100 nm E of St Augustine.
Divergence between the flat trof to the N and ridging to the S
is leading to widely scattered tstms along the front N of 27n
with tstms concentrating near the weaker low in the atlc. Upper
level flow has become parallel to the front with ridging
southward along the base of the trof from the coast of Texas to
the Florida Straits ewd into the W atlc near 28n58w. Elsewhere
an inverted upper trof along the W Mexican coast S of 24n is
producing little weather but will likely bring an increased
chance of rain for Yucatan and the southern Gulf for early week.
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Derek Ortt
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