GOM Concerns from N.O. NWS

[Stormcenter]

Well I just read this from this afternoon NWS discussion out
of New Orleans, LA. Who knows we MAY have our first home grown system forming in the GOM sometime soon.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
345 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...
LOWER HUMIDITY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A GREATER EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE BRINGING A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
RESULTANT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ETA HAS VERIFIED A
BIT TOO WET FOR TODAY AND THIS TREND CONTINUES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
OF SLIGHT TROPICAL AND MARINE CONCERNS IS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTION IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NORTHWEST FL. THIS IS NORTHEAST
OF AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THIS LOW AND GENERALLY MOVE IT WEST
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND DISSIPATE IT. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST...HAVE RAISED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS AGAIN FOR
PERSISTENT EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS AS OCCURRED AT THE 42040 BUOY THIS
MORNING.

THE ETA APPEARS TO TAP INTO THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE WHICH MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER...WILL GO CLOSER TO THE GFS MAV POPS
FOR NOW WHICH BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND A
GOOD CHANCE ON MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DECAYING SURFACE
BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH...INCREASING PRECIP WATER...AND THE RIGHT
REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET ON MONDAY WILL ASSIST WITH
BRINGING BACK MORE TYPICAL WET AUGUST WEATHER.

ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WILL BRING SHORTWAVE FEATURES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL THE EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY THURSDAY.

[Derek Ortt]

Nowhere in that discussion does it suggest that there may be tropical cyclone formation. It merely states that a frontal low may bring an increased chance of thunderstorms.

[Stormcenter]

Nowhere in that discussion does it suggest that there may be tropical cyclone formation. It merely states that a frontal low may bring an increased chance of thunderstorms.

I'm sorry you were mislead by the title of my post but TDs and more do develop from this type of scenario.

[Guest]

Derek read between the lines and think common sense. I think what Storm was indirectly saying is that Tropical development can be concieved with this type of scenario.

[Derek Ortt]

and 95% of the lows that form in this scenario do not form into anything tropical

[Dean4Storms]

and 95% of the lows that form in this scenario do not form into anything tropical

Ok, please bring me to mind the last time a low developed in the GOM in Aug. with increasing and deepening convection that did not become tropical in nature?

An inquiring mind would like to be reminded!

[rainstorm]

it still has a long way to go. if another front doesnt come down, maybe

[MGC]

There is a very weak low south of Alabama currently and I doubt it developes. Just cause a low forms in the gulf in August don't mean a automatic TC......MGC

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmmmm.............

[Derek Ortt]

I can think of one off of the top of my head that occurred this week. 90L

[The Dark Knight]

Good point.......

[Derecho]

Remember:

1) An average of LESS than one TC forms IN the Gulf per year. Last year was anomalous.

2) An even tinier percentage of those TCs that do form, do not originate from tropical waves.

Alicias and Dannys are real anomalous rarities.

There's a simply immense number of MCCs that move over the gulf, or the south ends of fronts, even in the tropical season, compared to the number of those that form TCs.