T numbers rise for ex TD#2 and 92L=Both with 1.5

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cycloneye
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T numbers rise for ex TD#2 and 92L=Both with 1.5

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 05, 2004 1:15 pm

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
05/1745 UTC 16.2N 71.4W T1.5/1.5 02 -- Atlantic Ocean
05/1745 UTC 17.0N 42.1W T1.5/1.5 92 -- Atlantic Ocean


Any comments are welcomed about these 2 systems.
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#2 Postby The Dark Knight » Thu Aug 05, 2004 1:17 pm

Looks like they've gone up...... Good sign.... For now.....
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#3 Postby yoda » Thu Aug 05, 2004 1:21 pm

That would suggest possibility for development. Now we have to look out for shear.
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 05, 2004 1:25 pm

yoda wrote:That would suggest possibility for development. Now we have to look out for shear.


Image

92L will have to contend with dry air ahead of it as shown in the water vapor pic.
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#5 Postby Rainband » Thu Aug 05, 2004 1:26 pm

If the shear subsides 91L should take off :eek: The convection is really firing. Time will tell if this is a sign of things to come or just shear induced :eek:
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#6 Postby The Dark Knight » Thu Aug 05, 2004 1:27 pm

We'll see.....
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#7 Postby yoda » Thu Aug 05, 2004 1:28 pm

Correct. Luis, if it gets past that dry air, is it favorable for development? And would the trough still be in postion along the East Coast to kick the storm away?
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#8 Postby The Dark Knight » Thu Aug 05, 2004 1:33 pm

..........The trough seems to be moving fairly quickly......Maybe...????
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#9 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 05, 2004 1:39 pm

That convection is due to the shear.

Not really sure as to how a Dvorak can be done on a wave
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#10 Postby yoda » Thu Aug 05, 2004 1:40 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:That convection is due to the shear.

Not really sure as to how a Dvorak can be done on a wave


Are you talking about the remnants of TD#2 Derek?
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#11 Postby MWatkins » Thu Aug 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Actually...using shear pattern analysis the system has a developmental t-number of 3.0. Of course you're breaking constraints if you go that high...but TAFB is also chiming in at 1.5 as of 1745Z.

Dvorak estimates start at 1.0...which simply looks for curvature in the pattern. 2.0 indicates a closed low with a pattern resembling a system with 30 knot sustained winds. Right now we are in between those with a system that actually looks like a sheared tropical storm in satellite imagery.

Of course...it's not an exact science...but the various agencies are right far more often than they are wrong.

MW
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#12 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 05, 2004 2:35 pm

To me, this doesnt look like a 3.0/3.0. It seems as if the convection is racing ahead and not wrapping. I cannot see any curvature; thus, I could not mkae an estimate
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#13 Postby The Dark Knight » Thu Aug 05, 2004 2:38 pm

I think that the SSD is looking at the amount of convection that is associated with the wave, maybe not the exact intensity..... I could be wrong.... That's my take in it....
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