TWO Hypes New Wave off Senegal

[Derecho]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/AXNT20.html

...Tropical wave introduced over the E atlc W of dakar near 20w S
of 16n moving W 10 kt. Yesterday evening's sounding from dakar
had a 55 kt jet core at 600 mb associated with the wave... quite
a powerful system. Computer models are hinting that this is a
system to monitor with a GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS/CMC consensus
suggesting some sort of surface low will develop in the next 36
hours along this wave axis. Only ITCZ convection at present.

[Rainband]

The train is leaving the station

[cycloneye]

Being a consensus of the global models this wave is one to be watched down the road.I say that 93L invest will be up in a couple of days as the low forms by then.

[Aquawind]

I will be pleasantly surprised if the models actually pan out..This sounds like they have something backing them up this time..Thanks I needed that..

[Derek Ortt]

Dont want another storm until about aug 15. I have WAY too much stuff to do

[Rainband]

Dont want another storm until about aug 15. I have WAY too much stuff to do

I will send a fax to mother Nature

[Brent]

Interesting.

One thing going for it is it's moving at 10 kt(15 mph?), much better for organization than 20-25 mph like ex-TD 2.

[Aquawind]

Let the Hype Begin..lol

I hate it when this happens..

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBds32.png

[Stormsfury]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/AXNT20.html

...Tropical wave introduced over the E atlc W of dakar near 20w S
of 16n moving W 10 kt. Yesterday evening's sounding from dakar
had a 55 kt jet core at 600 mb associated with the wave... quite
a powerful system. Computer models are hinting that this is a
system to monitor with a GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS/CMC consensus
suggesting some sort of surface low will develop in the next 36
hours along this wave axis. Only ITCZ convection at present.

Hmm, right now, the UKMET really takes the system off down there in the ITCZ...

That jet core almost sounds a lot like the WADL (a West African Disturbance Line), and IR satellite imagery might subtlely hinted of that ... anyway, the overall environment looks to be gradually juicing up out East ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... =Animation

[Derecho]

Interesting.

One thing going for it is it's moving at 10 kt(15 mph?), much better for organization than 20-25 mph like ex-TD 2.

When it was in the same place 91L was moving even more slowly; the speed-up doesn't occur till past the halfway point in the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Here is the UKMET text about this wave:



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 11.5N 21.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.08.2004 9.7N 21.0W WEAK

00UTC 06.08.2004 10.2N 23.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.08.2004 10.7N 27.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.08.2004 11.2N 30.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 07.08.2004 11.3N 34.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.08.2004 11.8N 38.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.08.2004 12.0N 41.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.08.2004 12.1N 44.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.08.2004 12.7N 46.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.08.2004 13.9N 49.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.08.2004 15.3N 51.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

[Stormsfury]

Other globals aren't that impressive looking ATT ... the GFS has small 950mb vorticity maximas littered around but nothing really congealing and nothing too impressive on a SFC based scale.

THe NOGAPS barely has anything on the 850mb vorticity signatures on it ... (very negligable) ... and neither does the CMC or the 12z ECMWF.

SF