Examining the models

[Guest]

Great post 16! By far one of the best post i have seen as well in quite sometime. Heck this is the best thread as well by far i have seen in quite sometime.

[Stormchaser16]

THANK YOU so much for the kind words guys.... it really makes my day to have so many people congratulating me on a post. All of the cards are laid out on the table concerning the future of Bonnie as well as the pattern for further down the road, lets wait and see where this thing goes!

[Weatherboy1]

Seems like the GFDL has been pretty consistent in calling for a recurve scenario for several runs. 00 UTC tropical models should be out soon ...

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO 02L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.4 55.9 280./21.9
6 13.7 57.6 282./16.4
12 14.4 59.0 295./14.8
18 14.5 60.8 275./17.4
24 15.2 62.3 294./16.9
30 15.7 64.1 284./17.9
36 16.5 65.5 300./15.7
42 16.9 66.8 288./12.7
48 17.5 67.8 303./11.3
54 18.4 68.5 320./11.1
60 19.1 69.3 309./10.4
66 20.0 70.2 319./11.9
72 21.0 70.7 333./11.0
78 22.1 71.1 337./11.4
84 23.0 71.6 335./10.4
90 24.0 71.7 353./ 9.6
96 25.1 71.2 21./12.4
102 26.3 70.9 18./12.1
108 27.5 70.6 13./11.8
114 28.5 69.8 37./12.1
120 29.6 69.2 32./12.4
126 30.4 68.5 37./10.1

[MGC]

Pretty good. Just hope TD 2 holds together long enouth for your forecast to verify. I'm not convinced the trough will be as amplified as forecast. This is early Ausust you know....MGC

[Stormchaser16]

Yes MGC, it very well may not be as amplified...... however if TD2 remains weak enough then the effects will still be felt. Im also pretty confident that TD2 will hold together, the only thing I really see working against it could be its forward speed.

[c5Camille]

ww3 model shows the storm holding out
in the lower reaches of the carib and starting
to strengthen at 144 hours... primed to head
into the NW crib...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/ww3_all. ... sig_wav_ht

[serenity]

What will happen if the front stalls over Central or South Florida?

[Stormchaser16]

If the front stalls(which seems pretty unlikely given this setup) Bonnie would eventually run into it, and the front would still be there to protect the coast. And eventually(as in Alex's situation) the trough would eventually get to it

[serenity]

Thanks for your reply. I think you did an excellent job on your post.

[Stormchaser16]

As for the ww3......

Take a look at 48 hrs..... hmmmmmmm
o boy, that looks like TD 2 there to me, the thing in the Carib at 144 hrs, not quite sure where that came from, but it doesnt look like its from TD2

[Stormchaser16]

Thank you serenity!