Well???

[chadtm80]

Late Night/Early morning thoughts? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[MWatkins]

Looks like...

1. The overall circulation envelope is stationary.

2. Moderate convection is starting to fire over the apparent low-center.

Recon will be out later in the morning...but things have become a little more interesting than they were earler today/yesterday...bet they find a better organzied surface center than they did before.

MW

[hurricanemike]

Looks Stationary to me...possibly getting better organized. No more SHRA over here NE Florida coast anymore...few clouds if that.

[USAwx1]

the low levels over ERN FL are pretty moist w/ PWs over 2". Alot drier out toward the west over the panhandle.

[MWatkins]

the low levels over ERN FL are pretty moist w/ PWs over 2". Alot drier out toward the west over the panhandle.

Which suggests that there is good available moisture closer to the circ center and a better established outflow away from the center? Perhaps the low is becoming more tropical...

MW

[USAwx1]

the low levels over ERN FL are pretty moist w/ PWs over 2". Alot drier out toward the west over the panhandle.

Which suggests that there is good available moisture closer to the circ center and a better established outflow away from the center? Perhaps the low is becoming more tropical...

MW

ETA maintains the High PW's through SUN in the 2" range and SFC dewpoints in the low-mid 70s as far N as the CArolinas VA and the Delmarva.

[MWatkins]

Contridicting signals from WV imagery...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Flow to the NW of the system appears to be NE to SW oriented...which would explain drier PWAT's on the west coast of FL. It would also contridict the notion that an upper-high is getting better established over the system.

On the otherhand...TD1 is doing some good forcing and thunderstorm support is becoming more concentrated.

I would not rule out Alex in the next 24 hours.

MW

[hurricanefreak1988]

Well, so much for a major TS hitting NC. This thing will be a dud. Now we're just gonna get loads of rain Monday with no action

But oh well, this is only storm #1, plenty of time to get some more action. Who knows, that Cape Verde wave out there could be the next NC visitor

[Aquawind]

Well the convection has held pretty well overnight..we even have some deep red showing on IR something I did not see yesterday at all..However things are still rather disorganized as the convection is still limited to the north of the center..NHC still has a TS forecasted..



000
WTNT41 KNHC 010831
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 01 2004

THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGES OR COASTAL RADARS. LOW CLOUD MOTIONS ON THE NIGHT CHANNEL
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED CENTER IS NORTH OF
THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND ELONGATED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS. THERE IS MODEST UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE DEPRESSION'S CIRCULATION...WHICH SHOULD HINDER
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NEAR
THE COAST...AS DOES THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A
LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...340/6...REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS APPROACHING A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...SO STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUALLY-
AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO CARRY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FAIRLY
CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SUGGEST KEEPING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 32.1N 79.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 33.0N 79.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 34.0N 78.2W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/1800Z 34.8N 77.0W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 03/0600Z 35.7N 75.5W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/0600Z 39.5N 69.0W 40 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 05/0600Z 44.5N 60.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

[Brent]

If the center remains where it is now, you can forget about Alex. However, I think the center could easily redevelop in that blob of thunderstorms. If it does, we could see a rapidly strengthening storm.

[alicia-w]

It's certainly not dry here in the midst of the panhandle. Humidity is 82% and it's already 84 degrees at 8 am (heat index of 94, UGH). There are supposed to be numerous thunderstorms today. dont consider that to be dry.

[vbhoutex]

If the center remains where it is now, you can forget about Alex. However, I think the center could easily redevelop in that blob of thunderstorms. If it does, we could see a rapidly strengthening storm.

Steve Lyons just stated that it appears the center is relocating S closer to or just under the N edge of the convection. This is significantly South of the current center and could lead to TS Alex well before landfall if the recon confirms this.

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmm........ Interesting.......