My thoughts on western Atlantic system!

[Matthew5]

The western Atlantic system is centered near 26.5 north/74.5 to 76 west. This area of low pressure, is broad but defined. In is moving to the west at a fairly Quick speed...This area is likely around the mid to upper levels in the Atmosphere. With a trough at the surface. While over the last few frames of the Ir. Has shown some convection, with convection feeding in from the west(The system is looking better). This being said it could very well be slowly becoming tropical with every pasting hour. The Water vapor shows dry air trying to move into the southern Quad. The shear is becoming very much more favable. With over a 30 knot decrease of the shear over the system. Shear over the system is 5 to 10 knots. The Quastion is doe's it form a LLCC down to the surface. Then doe's it hold onto that convection????

Shear
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Shear Tendency
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Water vapor
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg
Ir
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

What the models think???

The Gfdl is showing a weak tropical cyclone forming then moving it west-northwest then a northwest just before landfall...It shows a weak system. Most likely a tropical depression??? http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... =Animation


Avn holds it as a surface trough/Tropical wave...
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avn ... =Animation


The chances for a tropical depression forming is around 80 percent...I don't think the nhc, is going to upgrade this if it makes it to just a tropical depression! If they do I will be truely surprized!

[Thunder44]

The chances for a tropical depression forming is around 80 percent...I don't think the nhc, is going to upgrade this if it makes it to just a tropical depression! If they do I will be truely surprized!

Why do you think it would become a tropical depression, but the NHC wouldn't upgrade if it did? This is still a system that would be affecting the US mainland.

[Matthew5]

After the one that moved across Hati killing 3,300 people...I don't think they will upgrade a system for less then a 60 mph tropical storm. This is just my option!

[Thunder44]

After the one that moved across Hati killing 3,300 people...I don't think they will upgrade a system for less then a 60 mph tropical storm. This is just my option!

ok

[Matthew5]

The system looks better organized by the satellite frame. For one it looks like the lower level trough is starting to close.(Mostly be looking at the low cloud field starting to see a spin there) Then we got some convection forming over it. Could this be a tropical depression soon? That quastion is a wait in see!

[Thunder44]

yeah it does, we'll see what the NHC says at 5:30

[bahamaswx]

There have been no depressions thus far this year. If it becomes a depression they will upgrade it, that's what NHC is for. That's absurd.

[Matthew5]

I think a few of these systems where quite close to tropical depression stage. But that is my option, if you think it is absurd. That I think maybe they where then that is your right! In I respect your right to tell me off!

[alicia-w]

What facts do you have to back up your opinions? The NHC has criteria they use to determine the status of a storm system. They dont just call it a tropical depression because they feel like it. As for a system "killing 3300 people in Haiti", there are LOTS of countries that receive torrential rains and thus devastating killer floods and mudslides, but it doesnt mean the NHC was wrong.

[hurricanefloyd5]

In the last satellite frame i've notice the hugh system looks to be headed to the florida coast but i could be wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Derek Ortt]

The Hatian system was in no way tropical. NHC odesn't upgrade frontal and non tropical lows

[vbhoutex]

You are welcome to your opinion Matthew, but IT IS FLAT WRONG!!! To state that the NHC wouldn't classify anything below a 60 mph TS is WAY PAST ABSURD!!!!! I will not use the words I am thinking about here. As Alicia stated, there are certain criteria that are used, which you obviously do not understand or you would never make such a RIDICULOUS STATEMENT!!! Yes, a couple of the systems have approached TD status, but I have not seen any of them make TD status even in my sometimes wishful eyes. Unless you can come up with the proof that NHC was wrong I would suggest you refrain from making such rash statements, opinion or not!!

[mitchell]

The NHC has criteria they use to determine the status of a storm system. They dont just call it a tropical depression because they feel like it.

I agree and I for one would LOVE to see an actual serious dialogue on this message board regarding the politics of tropical weather forecasting by those who are, or have been, in the business. Every government agency answers to constituent pressure (pressure to get the forecast right but also pressure from a variety of other interests including tourism and public safety/emergency management officials) After all NOAA gets its funding levels determined by the Administration and Congress - they CARE about their jobs just like the rest of us so they balance all of the factors in their work products.

I'm not a conspiracy type or anything, or think the NHC are clueless like a few private forecasters like to suggest. Still, just how DO they deal with all of these different pressures that bear on them as they determine whether to upgrade, name, forecast tracks etc.