Question about TD's

[Rieyeuxs]

Got a question for all those staticians out there...

This isn't a complaint about slow starts, but I was wondering if there have been other years that have been active without at least a TD formed by now.

I've heard the statistics about named storms, but could we still expect an active season when we haven't even seen a TD or two yet? What the latest date it's been for the first TD to form?

[OtherHD]

Got a question for all those staticians out there...

This isn't a complaint about slow starts, but I was wondering if there have been other years that have been active without at least a TD formed by now.

I've heard the statistics about named storms, but could we still expect an active season when we haven't even seen a TD or two yet? What the latest date it's been for the first TD to form?

That's a really great question, but I don't think there's too much data available (at least publically) on all Atlantic storms, including TD's. I did stumble upon a site a while back that contained to data for all storms (including TD's) back to the 1970's or so. I don't have the link handy though.

I would also like to add that you are only partially correct in your statement about there being no TD's this year; there has been a fairly long lived and steadily growing tropical depression on the message boards, but I'm not quite sure if it counts.

EDIT: Well, caneflyer proved me wrong. Thanks for the stats!

[caneflyer]

The best track data base only includes non-developing depressions back through 1967. For the period 1967-2003, the latest development of the first tropical depression occurred on 28 August 1967. This depression later became Arlene. The second latest first depression formation was on 5 August 1988 (Alberto). This season now ranks third on the list of latest forming first depressions (at least going back to 1967).

[tailgater]

WOW great info caneflyer.

[bahamaswx]

Yeah, I didn't think records including non-developing depressions went back all that far.

1967: 8/6/1
1988: 12/5/3

An average of the two corresponds near-average activity... but then a sample size of two years means nothing at all--I was just bored . Interesting that both seasons had a cat5, however.

[Rieyeuxs]

OtherHD wrote:

I would also like to add that you are only partially correct in your statement about there being no TD's this year; there has been a fairly long lived and steadily growing tropical depression on the message boards, but I'm not quite sure if it counts.

LOL!!!

THAT depression started 2 weeks before the season began with Blob #1

[Derecho]

We're all of one day behind 1998, which saw nothing till TS Alex formed on July 27th, which only lasted till August 2nd when it was vaporized by extreme shear.

Then nothing else formed till Bonnie on August 19th.

Then you had Georges and Mitch after that.

I remember July and the first 2 weeks of August of 1998 as a fountain of incessant whining about a dead or slow season, interestingly enough

[donsutherland1]

Rieyeuxs,

Since 1950, there have been four years in which no tropical systems (depressions, storms or hurricanes) had formed prior to August 1 that went on to be active (11 or named storms):

1950: 13 named storms: Hurricane Able (August 12) was the first named storm

1984: 12 named storms: Tropical Storm Arthur (August 28) was the first named storm; Subtropical storm 17 (August 18) was the earliest system with at least some tropical characteristics

1988: 12 named storms: Tropical Storm Alberto (August 5) was the first named storm

2000: 14 named storms: Hurricane Alberto (August 3) was the first named storm

[vacanechaser]

Rieyeuxs,

Since 1950, there have been four years in which no tropical systems (depressions, storms or hurricanes) had formed prior to August 1 that went on to be active (11 or named storms):

1950: 13 named storms: Hurricane Able (August 12) was the first named storm

1984: 12 named storms: Tropical Storm Arthur (August 28) was the first named storm; Subtropical storm 17 (August 18) was the earliest system with at least some tropical characteristics

1988: 12 named storms: Tropical Storm Alberto (August 5) was the first named storm

2000: 14 named storms: Hurricane Alberto (August 3) was the first named storm

nice work... i am still thinking it will be an active year... all you have to do is read the discussions, "lower than average pressures, and higher than normal sea-temps.." just as soon as the shear relaxes and the dust gets outta there, the lid should come off... i am thinking in about 2 weeks..?? lets see...

[donsutherland1]

Vacanechaser,

I strongly agree with you. If one examines some of the major global indices, odds are strongly in favor of a season with 10 or more named storms.

Let's see what happens when the pattern becomes less progressive after around August 10 and then, shortly thereafter, the next wet phase of the MJO kicks in. It would not surprise me if the 2004 season came to life with a burst of activity and threats of storms.